Publications

Strong consumer spending has been the main driver of U.S. economic growth throughout 2019, which has helped extend the longest economic expansion in U.S. history. This year has also seen the U.S. manufacturing sector slip into contraction – and yet, the rest of the economy has hummed along. Paradoxical performance across sectors raises the question of whether (and how) manufacturing weakness might spread to the rest of the economy, or even pull the U.S. into economic recession.

Related Documents: A Tale of Two Sectors: Manufacturing Weakness & Consumer Strength in 2019

The U.S. economy continued its decade-long expansion in the first quarter of 2019, achieving 3.1% annualized growth. The expansion is being driven by a strong labor market and low borrowing costs, but several headwinds are gaining momentum. Softening in housing and manufacturing, compounded by uncertainty from international trade disputes, is likely to dampen growth to 2.3-2.5% for the year.

Related Documents: Key Insight – United States: 2019 Mid-Year Macro Update

Student debt is weighing strongly on the minds (and bank accounts) of many Americans. Data suggest that borrowing for college benefits the U.S. economy overall by improving access to education and increasing students’ lifetime earning potential, but it may also cause young adults to delay important milestones like getting married or buying a home. Student debt is unlikely to trigger an economic or financial crisis, but individual borrowers will be especially vulnerable during a recession.

Related Documents: Key Insight – United States: Macroeconomic Effects of Rising Student Debt 

Recent delays in trade talks between the U.S. and China have revived concerns about an all-out trade war between the two nations. The conflict has evolved beyond trade deficit issues as the U.S. pressures Beijing for substantive structural reforms that are unlikely to occur in the near term. Even if the U.S. and China can resolve the present trade dispute, the broader strategic confrontation will live on.

Related Documents: Key Insight – U.S.-China Trade Outlook

Global financial markets are increasingly optimistic that President Trump and President Xi will soon agree to a trade deal that will reassure and ignite financial markets. Such optimism, however, is unwarranted. In this analysis, Keybridge lays out major areas of concern surrounding a potential trade deal and the long-term impacts on global financial markets.

Related Documents: Key Insight – Why Global Financial Markets Are Too Sanguine About a Trump-Xi Trade Deal