Publications

The U.S. economy accelerated in 2018, and the visible strength of economic fundamentals in the U.S. may lead some to assume that economic growth in 2019 will match that of the preceding year. However, the U.S. economy faces a number of strengthening headwinds that appear likely to constrain growth in the coming year. In this 2019 Macroeconomic Outlook, Keybridge examines the headwinds, tailwinds, and uncertainties that the economy will face in the year ahead.

Related Documents: Key Insight – 2019 U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook

On November 6, 2018, Americans turned out in droves to vote in the midterm elections. The outcome of the 2018 midterms reflects schisms within the U.S. regarding president Trump and major issues facing the nation. In this analysis, Keybridge examines the results of the 2018 midterm elections and assesses potential implications for the U.S. economy.

Related Documents: Key Insight – Midterm Elections – November 2018

Since July 2018, President Donald Trump has increasingly criticized the U.S. Federal Reserve for raising its benchmark rate rate, leading some to question whether the Federal Reserve’s independence is in danger. In this analysis, Keybridge examines whether President Trump’s attacks will affect Fed policy going forward, and how the attacks will impact public confidence in the independent institution.

Related Documents: Key Insight – Fed Under Fire – October 2018

Technological advances in hydraulic fracturing made during the 2014-16 period have allowed U.S. producers to extract oil and gas with greater profitability even at lower energy prices. The resulting increase in production coming out of the Permian Basin will make the United States the leading global crude oil producer starting in 2018 – an unthinkable development 10 years ago. In this analysis, Keybridge examines the fundamental shift in energy production and how it will alter U.S. foreign policy.

Related Documents: Key Insight – U.S. Energy Independence – July 2018

The risks of a global trade war are rising. In the coming weeks, the Trump Administration is almost certain to implement aggressive tariffs or quotas on steel and aluminum imports under the United States’ Section 232 national security clause. If China, in particular, retaliates to Section 232 actions in an aggressive manner, the situation could unravel quickly, with very detrimental effects on global financial markets. In this analysis, Keybridge examines the possibility of a full-fledged trade war, and the impacts it would have on the world economy.

Related Documents: Key Insight – A Global Trade War in 2018? – February 2018