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U.S. Economic Indicators

New factory orders for manufactured goods decreased 0.5% in February following no change in January and are up 2.4% compared to a year ago. New orders excluding transportation rose 0.3% while new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft fell 0.1%. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that U.S. lawmakers have until October to reach a deal to increase discretionary federal spending, a critical driver of GDP growth in the current economic expansion. Although analysts expect Congress to reach a bipartisan deal before spending limits automatically kick in this fall, there is a chance that heightened political tension could impede a new spending agreement, leading to an estimated 0.6% decrease in GDP growth. WSJ

According to the Financial Times, the latest update to the Brookings-FT Tracking Index for the Global Economic Recovery (TIGER) indicates that the global economy has entered a “synchronized slowdown” that is unlikely to reverse in 2019. The worsening outlook is driven by fading momentum in Europe, China, and the U.S., which may be difficult to reverse through fiscal stimulus and conventional monetary policy given current high levels of public debt and interest rates near or below zero. FT

U.S. Economic Indicators

The U.S. economy added 196,000 jobs in March, above consensus. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%, the labor force participation rate edged down to 63.0%, and average hourly earnings increased by 3.2% over the past 12 months. BLS Report

U.S. News

The New York Times reports that U.S. manufacturing growth is expected to slow considerably as the industry faces headwinds from steel and aluminum tariffs, cooling growth in China and Europe, and waning effects of last year’s tax cuts. Cautious manufacturers are postponing investment in equipment, but a sharp increase in layoffs appears unlikely in the near term given the strength of the labor market and healthy consumer confidence. NYT

According to the Wall Street Journal, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker announced Thursday that he doesn’t anticipate a rate cut in 2019 or 2020, but sees at most one rate increase this year. Mr. Harker expects sustained, moderate growth of just over 2.0% in 2019, but acknowledged the risks posed by rising business uncertainty and decreasing confidence. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims fell 10,000 to 202,000 last week, the lowest level in 50 years. The four-week moving average fell 4,000 to 213,500. DOL Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, a new IMF study found that, if enacted, 25% tariffs on Chinese imports to the U.S. coupled with Chinese retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods would lower U.S. GDP by 0.3%-0.6% and China’s GDP by 0.5%-1.5%. The report noted that while global growth would decline overall, certain regions—including Mexico, Canada, Europe, and parts of Asia—would benefit in the short run from trade diverted through their economies. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index declined 3.6 percentage points to 56.1 in March. The New Orders Index fell 6.2 percentage points to 59.0, while the Employment Index increased 0.7 percentage point to 55.9. ISM Report

The ADP Employment Report shows that private-sector employment increased by 129,000 jobs in March, below expectations of 165,000. The services sector added 135,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector lost 6,000 jobs. ADP Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, a newly-released New York Fed report indicates that younger Americans lack access to credit, making it harder to purchase homes and build personal wealth. The report found that millennials, burdened by high student-loan debt, have lower levels of mortgage originations and higher auto and credit card delinquency rates compared to previous generations. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that major auto makers are reporting declines in first quarter U.S. sales, citing post-recession sales peaks, rising prices, and the attractiveness of used car options as reasons why new vehicle sales are in decline. Some producers expressed cautious optimism that demand for new cars will pick up later this year amid sustained low unemployment and strong wage growth. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

New orders of manufactured durable goods fell 1.6% in February after rising 0.1% (revised) in January but are up 4.4% year-to-date. Excluding transportation, new orders edged up 0.1% (up 3.2% YTD). Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

According to the Financial Times, the World Trade Organization has warned of “strong headwinds” facing global trade over the next two years due to commercial tensions, slowing economies, financial volatility, and tighter monetary conditions in developed countries. The WTO downgraded its estimate of global trade growth in 2018 to 3.0% and expects global trade to grow by just 2.6% in 2019. FT

The Wall Street Journal reports that indices of manufacturing activity rebounded in the U.S. and China in March while dropping sharply in Europe, suggesting an uneven outlook on global growth. The IHS Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index for the eurozone indicated the largest decline in output in nearly six years as European manufacturers struggle with trade tensions and slowing demand from China. WSJ