Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

The April Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity grew modestly, as the headline index rose 6.0 points to 10.1, indicating that growth picked up somewhat but remained subdued.  The new orders index rose 5.0 points to 7.5, the shipments index edged up 1.0 point to 8.6, and the index for number of employees declined to 11.9; meanwhile, hours worked rose slightly after an unexpected decline last month. NY Fed Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the International Monetary Fund, backed by the U.S., is pressuring Germany and other advanced economies with budget surpluses to provide economic stimulus to prop up global growth. Germany has run an annual surplus since 2014, but is reluctant to launch a large-scale stimulus program that might discourage indebted countries like France and Italy from bringing their budgets into balance. WSJ

The Financial Times reports that global productivity growth faded in 2018 and is unlikely to pick up this year, dashing hopes that the digital revolution would help economies emerge from a protracted productivity slowdown. There was no increase in the overall efficiency of the global economy last year and no signs of an imminent productivity revival in either advanced or emerging economies. FT

U.S. Economic Indicators

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined 1.5 points to 96.9 in the preliminary April reading and is down 1.9 points from a year ago. The Index of Consumer Expectations fell 3.0 points to 85.8, while the Current Economic Conditions Index improved 0.9 point to 114.2. University of Michigan

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that over half of economists surveyed as part of its monthly poll indicated that raising the federal minimum wage would hurt lower-income households by reducing employment. Respondents also expect, on average, for the economy to grow at a rate of 2.1% in 2019, and nearly half expect the next recession to start in 2020. WSJ

Bloomberg reports that Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, is preparing for bilateral trade talks with the U.S. as trade negotiations between the U.S. and China wind down. Japan agreed to talks after being hit by President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs last year, and is hoping to avoid potential auto tariffs while the U.S. seeks to use agricultural exports to reduce its trade deficit with Japan. Bloomberg

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims fell 8,000 to 196,000 last week, the lowest level for initial claims since 1969. The four-week moving average fell 7,000 to 207,000. DOL Report

The headline Producer Price Index (“PPI”) for final demand rose 0.6% in March and is up 2.2% since March of last year. The core — which removes volatile prices of food, energy, and trade services — was unchanged in March and is up 2.0% from a year ago. BLS Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced that the U.S. and China have agreed on an enforcement mechanism for their potential trade deal. Mnuchin indicated that the two countries are also close to completing a currency agreement which would limit China’s ability to manipulate its currency to gain an unfair trade advantage. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said the U.S. economy is doing well, despite his expectation that growth will slow this year from last year. Clarida stated that Fed officials are remaining patient as they assess the need for monetary policy adjustments amid slowing global growth and Brexit. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Consumer prices rose 0.4% in March (up 1.9% from a year ago). The “core” CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.1% in March and is up 2.0% from twelve months ago. BLS Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the International Monetary Fund has cut its global growth forecast for this year to 3.3%, down from 3.5% in January. The IMF attributed its lower expectations to an environment of increased trade tensions, declining business confidence, tightening financial conditions, and higher policy uncertainty across many economies. WSJ

According to the Financial Times, the European Central Bank has reiterated its commitment to hold rates steady through at least the end of 2019, keeping monetary stimulus in place until the eurozone’s slowdown reverses course. The ECB is also planning to issue cheap central bank funding in an effort to resist credit shortages and is considering implementing a tiered deposit rate. FT

U.S. Economic Indicators

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged up 0.1 point to 101.8 in March and remains near all-time highs as five components rose, three fell, and two were unchanged. Expectations for current job openings rose while expectations for the economy to improve remained unchanged. NFIB Report

U.S. News

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (“JOLTS”), a closely-watched measure of labor market health, indicated there were 7.1 million job openings at the end of February, down 0.5 million from January.  Hires remained at 5.7 million while the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3 percent.  BLS Report

According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. announced plans to impose tariffs on $11 billion in imports from the European Union in response to a World Trade Organization ruling in the U.S.’s favor regarding EU subsidies to the European aircraft manufacturer Airbus. The tariffs proposed by the U.S. would apply to a range of both aviation and non-aviation goods, though the final list of items and level of tariffs will ultimately be determined by a WTO-appointed arbitrator. WSJ