Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

Disposable personal income remained flat in March after rising 0.1% in February, while real personal consumption expenditure (PCE) rose 0.7% in March. The PCE price index rose 0.2% (up 1.5% Y/Y) and the core price index was unchanged (up 1.6% Y/Y) in March. BEA Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) appears increasingly unlikely to pass Congress before next year’s presidential election due to bipartisan criticism. Democrats are pushing for the agreement to include labor protections for workers in Mexico, while some Republicans are insisting on the removal of steel and aluminum tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico. WSJ

The New York Times reports that U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced Sunday that trade talks between the U.S. and China are “into the final laps.” Secretary Mnuchin travels to China Monday with U.S. trade negotiator Robert Lighthizer to resolve remaining issues, including China’s practice of subsidizing domestic industries and the U.S.’s move to end China’s waiver allowing it to import oil from Iran. NYT

U.S. Economic Indicators

The first estimate of Q1 GDP indicates that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 3.2%, well above the consensus estimate of 2.3%. The reading reflects positive contributions from personal consumption, private inventories, net exports, government spending, and business investment, which were partially offset by a decrease in residential investment. BEA Report

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined 1.2 points to 97.2 in the final April reading and is down 1.6 points from a year ago. The Index of Consumer Expectations fell 1.4 points to 87.4, while the Current Economic Conditions Index eased 1.0 point to 112.3. University of Michigan

U.S. News

The New York Times reports that President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Abe will meet today to discuss a bilateral trade deal that could give U.S. farmers and ranchers greater access to Japan’s market and prevent increased tariffs on Japanese cars. President Trump is facing pressure to from domestic agricultural producers disadvantaged by the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. NYT

The Wall Street Journal reports that the euro is trading at a nearly 2-year low against the dollar, reflecting growing skepticism about the possibility of an economic rebound in Europe this year. Expectations are muted for upcoming manufacturing data from the U.K., France, and Germany, while the latest U.S. GDP estimate should improve investor confidence in U.S. growth prospects. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims increased 37,000 to 230,000 last week. The four-week moving average rose 4,500 to 206,000. DOL Report

New orders of manufactured durable goods increased 2.7% in March after falling 1.1% (revised) in February and are up 3.0% compared to a year ago. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4% (up 2.4% from last year). Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

The Financial Times reports that governments of rich nations are failing to prepare workers for the impact of artificial intelligence, according to a new report by the OECD. The report found that around 14% of existing jobs could disappear over the next two decades as a result of automation, with retail, manufacturing, and food and hospitality services most heavily impacted. FT

Bloomberg reports that European Central Bank officials are optimistic that growth in the euro area will pick up in the second half of 2019. The expected improvement is contingent on stronger industrial production, continued recovery in China, and de-escalation of the trade conflict with the U.S. Bloomberg

U.S. News

The Financial Times reports that a new study by the European Central Bank found that escalations in global trade barriers could reduce U.S. GDP by 2.0% relative to the baseline expectation. The ECB’s research found that after one year of heightened trade tensions, U.S. economic growth would be hurt more than growth in Europe or China. FT

According to the Financial Times, business confidence in Germany weakened unexpectedly in April as sentiment deteriorated sharply in manufacturing and trade. Conditions continue to worsen for Europe’s largest economy despite signs of a rebound in the U.S. and China. FT

The New York Times reports that the effective U.S. minimum wage is at an all-time high at $11.80 an hour. Although the federal minimum wage has remained unchanged at $7.25 for the last decade, 89% of the nation’s minimum-wage employees earn higher wages due to state- and city-level minimum wages set above the federal level. NYT

U.S. Economic Indicators

New home sales rose 4.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 692,000 in March, and are 3.0% above the March 2018 rate. The median sales price fell to $302,700 and the inventory of new homes edged down to 6.0 months at the current sales rate. Census Bureau Report

The FHFA House Price Index shows that U.S. house prices rose 0.3% in February and were up 4.9% from year-ago levels.  Year-over-year house price changes were positive in all nine census divisions. FHFA Report

U.S. News

Anne Tergesen of the Wall Street Journal reports that American workers’ and retirees’ confidence in their retirement finances has risen to all-time highs due to a strong economy and high stock prices. The annual survey conducted by the Employee Benefit Research Institute found that 82% of retirees and 67% of workers are optimistic about their ability to live comfortably in retirement, up from 75% and 64% last year. WSJ