Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

Retail sales eased 0.2% in April but were up 3.1% from a year ago.  Core sales — which exclude autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services — were unchanged. Census Bureau Report

Business inventories remained essentially unchanged from February to March but were up 5.0% from last year.  Manufacturers’ sales rose 0.7% and were up 1.7% compared to a year ago. Census Bureau Report

Industrial production fell 0.5% in April (up 0.9% Y/Y) after increasing 0.2% (revised) in March.  Capacity utilization declined 0.6 point to 77.9 in April. Fed Report

The May Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity increased significantly as the headline index rose 8.0 points to 17.8, its highest level since November 2018.  The new orders index rose 2.0 points to 9.7, the shipments index rose 8.0 points to 16.3, and the index for number of employees fell to 4.7; meanwhile, hours worked held steady after rising last month. NY Fed Report

The NAHB Housing Market Index rose 3.0 points to 66.0 in May. All major components of the index posted gains this month, driven upward by low borrowing costs, continued job growth, and rising wages. NAHB Report

U.S. Economic Indicators

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 1.7 points to 103.5 in April as nine components rose and one was unchanged. Expectations for current job openings increased, as did expectations for the economy to improve. NFIB Report

U.S. News

The Financial Times reports that China has disputed U.S. accusations that it reneged on trade commitments, stating that the attempt to force China to purchase more U.S. goods led to the breakdown in negotiations. Beijing has ramped up nationalist rhetoric on official media to increase domestic support for a prolonged conflict with Washington. FT

According to the Wall Street Journal, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston president Eric Rosengren warned Monday that it is too soon to know how the accelerating trade war between the U.S. and China will affect the global economy. He stated that given the uncertainty surrounding global growth and the U.S. economic outlook, it is best for the Fed to continue to hold interest rates steady. WSJ

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that China has announced it will raise tariffs to as high as 25% on $60 billion worth of U.S. imports on June 1 in retaliation for the U.S. increasing tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. The Chinese tariffs will affect roughly 5,000 kinds of U.S. products currently taxed between 5% and 10%, including animal products, frozen produce, and chemicals. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, the current tight U.S. job market has negatively impacted small business growth, as tiny companies struggle to attract and retain workers. Job growth at the smallest businesses has fallen to the lowest level in nearly eight years, with some small companies turning to automation and outside contracting to reduce the need for new recruits. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Consumer prices rose 0.3% in April (up 2.0% from a year ago).  The “core” CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.1% in April and is up 2.1% from twelve months ago. BLS Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. increased tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25% Friday morning as planned, mainly affecting capital and intermediate goods. President Trump also announced that the U.S. is taking steps to impose new 25% tariffs on an additional $325 billion worth of Chinese goods that are not currently taxed. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, most private-sector economists surveyed in a recent WSJ study expect a tight labor market to improve U.S. wage growth over the next year. Worker scarcity, improving labor productivity, and muted inflationary pressures are boosting workers’ wages as companies compete for labor. WSJ