Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

Consumer prices rose 0.1% in May (up 1.8% from a year ago). The “core” CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.1% in May and is up 2.0% from last year. BLS Report

U.S. News

The Financial Times reports that U.S. homeowners are increasingly choosing to refinance their mortgages to take advantage of low borrowing costs. Demand has also risen among home buyers, though signs of caution remain amid an uncertain economic outlook. FT

According to the Wall Street Journal, acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney stated that the USMCA deal has a “better than two-thirds chance” of approval by the end of this year, though its passage is dependent on support from a majority of House Democrats. Democratic lawmakers are demanding key changes to USMCA — including stronger enforcement mechanisms and Mexican labor rights provisions — before the agreement can be brought to a vote. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 1.5 points to 105.0 in May and remains near all-time highs as six components improved, one weakened, and three were unchanged. Capital spending plans increased along with expectations for sales, business conditions, and expansion. NFIB Report

The headline Producer Price Index (“PPI”) for final demand rose 0.1% in May and is up 1.8% from May of last year. The core — which removes volatile prices of food, energy, and trade services — rose 0.4% in May and is up 2.3% from a year ago. BLS Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, the gap between the number of job openings and the number of unemployed Americans increased to its largest margin on record in April, with over 1.5 million more unfilled jobs than Americans seeking work. Although growth in job openings has cooled in recent months, employers are still struggling to attract sufficient numbers of workers in a historically tight labor market. WSJ

The Financial Times reports that the U.S., Canada, and Australia have announced their intention to work together to encourage responsible development of materials that are critical for new energy technologies. A shift in global energy production away from fossil fuels is expected to sharply increase demand for materials such as copper, cobalt, and lithium, in which China is currently the world’s dominant supplier. FT

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (“JOLTS”) indicated there were 7.4 million job openings at the end of April, essentially unchanged from March.  Hires edged up to 5.9 million, while the quits rate remained at 2.3 percent. BLS Report

U.S. News

According to the Financial Times, Vietnam has vowed to crack down on companies that have been relabeling Chinese goods as made in Vietnam to avoid U.S. tariffs. Vietnam has benefited substantially from U.S. companies shifting purchasing and manufacturing away from China, with exports of Vietnamese goods to the U.S rising 40% in Q1 of 2019. FT

The Wall Street Journal reports that the American South has begun to diverge economically from the rest of the U.S., reversing decades of improvement driven by low taxes and low wages that once attracted thousands of blue-collar jobs. The rural South is struggling to compete for businesses and workers amid increased globalization in manufacturing and years of underinvestment in human capital development. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The U.S. economy added 75,000 jobs in May, well below consensus. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%, the labor force participation rate held steady at 62.8%, and average hourly earnings annual growth edged down to 3.1%. BLS Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that although the U.S. and Mexico have made significant progress in border security negotiations over the past several days, the U.S. is still on track to impose tariffs on Mexican goods next week. The Mexican government is planning to deploy 6,000 troops to stem the flow of migrants entering the country from Guatemala, but the U.S. insists that Mexico take further action to help enforce U.S. asylum policies. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, a recent Fed report found that American households’ net worth rose 4.5% in the first quarter of 2019, more than making up for losses from last year’s stock market turbulence. The report also indicated a slowdown in household debt accumulation that could reflect a slowdown in spending, a worrying sign for the consumer-driven U.S. economy. WSJ