Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity expanded in March as the headline index rose 5.0 points to 17.4. The new orders index decreased 1.7 points to 9.1, the index for number of employees decreased 2.7 points to 9.4, and the shipments index spiked 17 points to 21.1. NY Fed Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that a surge in demand by U.S. consumers could exacerbate supply-chain disruptions, driving up shipping times and costs. As successful vaccination campaigns, accumulated savings, and the recently passed $1.9 trillion relief bill lead to spikes in spending, businesses around the world may see even more acute shortages – especially for components like semiconductors – and strained capacity. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased 6.2 points to 83.0 in the preliminary March reading but is down 6.1 points from March of last year. The Index of Consumer Expectations rose 6.8 points to 77.5, while the Current Economic Conditions Index rose 5.3 points to 91.5. University of Michigan

The headline Producer Price Index (“PPI”) for final demand increased 0.5% in February and is up 2.8% year-over-year. The core – which removes the volatile prices of food, energy, and trade services – edged up 0.2% in February and is up 2.2% year-over-year. BLS Report

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (“JOLTS”) indicated that the number of job openings was little changed at 6.9 million in January. The number of hires was little changed at 5.3 million, and the layoffs and discharges rate was little changed at 1.2%. BLS Report

Initial jobless claims decreased 42,000 to 712,000 last week. The four-week moving average decreased 34,000 to 759,000. DOL Report

U.S. Economic Indicators

Consumer prices rose 0.4% in February (up 1.7% from a year ago). The “core” CPI, which excludes food and energy, edged up 0.1% in February and has risen 1.3% since last year. BLS Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that, despite fears the pandemic would cause widespread tax shortfalls, total state tax revenues in 2020 were roughly flat compared to the year before. While analysts still expect budget gaps over the next two years, robust federal support and stable employment among wealthier workers helped avert most of the large declines feared at the onset of the crisis. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged up to 95.8 in February as five components improved, four weakened, and one was unchanged. The uptick in the index was primarily driven by an increase in the share of small businesses reporting difficulties filling job openings and an improvement in expectations for future earnings. NFIB Report

U.S. News

The New York Times reports that the drop in international travel throughout 2020 resulted in an estimated loss of $1.3 trillion in global export revenues – more than 11 times the loss observed in 2009 as a result of the Great Recession. Though tourism in some areas is not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024, the exact pace of recovery in the global travel industry will have major impacts on carbon dioxide emissions, local and long-distance travel by car, and GDP growth, especially for tourism-dependent economies. NYT