Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index edged up from -0.03 in May to -0.02 in June. The employment category contributed positively, the sales, orders, & inventories and personal consumption & housing categories contributed negatively, and production-related indicators made a neutral contribution. Chicago Fed Report

U.S. News

Alan Rappeport reports for the New York Times that escalating distrust between the U.S. and China has slowed the flow of Chinese funds into U.S. ventures, with Chinese investment plummeting nearly 90% since 2016. The decline is due in part to stricter capital controls within China and greater regulatory scrutiny in the U.S., and is expected to reverberate throughout the U.S. economy. NYT

The Washington Post reports that the pending congressional budget agreement to suspend the debt ceiling and set overall spending levels for the next two years is likely to include few, if any, of the $150 billion in new cuts requested by the White House. Instead, the budget agreement will likely increase spending by billions of dollars while reducing the chances of another government shutdown in September. WaPo

U.S. Economic Indicators

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose 0.2 point to 98.4 in the preliminary July reading and is up 0.5 point from July of last year. The Index of Consumer Expectations rose 0.8 point to 90.1 while the Current Economic Conditions Index fell 0.8 point to 111.1. University of Michigan

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that St. Louis Fed President James Bullard stated he would support a quarter-percentage-point rate cut at the FOMC’s July meeting but doesn’t believe a larger cut is needed. His statement pushes back against expectations of a more aggressive half-point cut to address concerns surrounding slower global growth, trade uncertainty, and muted inflation. WSJ

According to the Washington Post, more than 50 multinational corporations have announced plans to move manufacturing out of China to avoid U.S. tariffs. As growth hits a 27-year low, Chinese officials have announced a cutback in foreign investment restrictions to mitigate the exodus of foreign businesses. WaPo

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) declined 0.3% in June, following no change in May. The decline was driven by weakness in new manufacturing orders, housing permits, and employment, with growth likely to remain slow in the second half of 2019 as the U.S. economy enters its eleventh year of expansion. Conference Board Report

Initial jobless claims rose 8,000 to 216,000 last week. The four-week moving average fell 250 to 218,750. DOL Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, the latest Federal Reserve beige book survey found that American businesses see economic activity expanding modestly in the coming months despite widespread concerns over trade. Businesses pointed to healthy consumer spending while acknowledging continuing struggles with worker shortages. WSJ

The Washington Post reports that the House of Representatives is scheduled to vote Thursday on a bill that would raise the minimum wage gradually from its current level of $7.25 an hour to $15 an hour in 2025. The bill is likely to pass the House with overwhelming Democratic support, but is expected to fail in the Republican-led Senate. WaPo

U.S. Economic Indicators

Privately-owned housing starts fell 0.9% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.25 million (up 6.2% year-over-year). Housing permits declined 6.1% to a 1.22 million annual pace in June and are down 6.6% from last year. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

According to the Financial Times, the WTO has ruled against the U.S. in a tariff dispute case brought by China in 2012 in response to U.S. tariffs on goods subsidized by Chinese state-owned enterprises. The WTO acknowledged China subsidizes some materials, but stated that the U.S. must accept Chinese pricing when calculating tariffs, giving China the option to impose retaliatory measures if the U.S. does not comply with the ruling. FT

The Wall Street Journal reports that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated the upheaval of the 2008 financial crisis reshaped the central banking landscape such that domestic monetary policy must take global developments into account. His assertion comes at a time when slowing growth abroad has likely set the stage for a Fed rate cut despite healthy consumer spending and a strong labor market at home. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Retail sales rose 0.4% in June and are up 3.4% from a year ago. Core sales — which exclude autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services —  increased 0.7%. Census Bureau Report

Industrial production was unchanged in June (up 1.3% year-over-year) after rising 0.4% in May. Capacity utilization declined 0.2 point to 77.9 in June. Fed Report

Business inventories rose 0.3% in May and were up 5.3% from May of last year. Manufacturers’ sales rose 0.1% in May and were up 1.5% compared to a year ago. Census Bureau Report

The NAHB Housing Market Index rose 1.0 point to 65.0 in July. All major components of the index inched higher this month, though builders continue to face headwinds from buildable lot shortages and a lack of skilled labor. NAHB Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has announced the administration is “very close” to reaching a deal with congressional leaders to raise the federal borrowing limit and set spending levels for 2020 and 2021. Congress is under pressure to address the borrowing limit before the August recess to avoid a possible government shutdown in early September. WSJ