Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index edged down from 135.8 (revised) in July to 135.1 in August. Consumer Confidence eased after last month’s rebound due to cooling economic expectations but remains strong overall, indicating that consumers are still willing to spend. Conference Board Report

The FHFA House Price Index shows that U.S. house prices rose 1.0% in the second quarter of 2019 and were up 5.0% from year-ago levels. Year-over-year house price changes were positive in all nine census divisions. FHFA Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that despite the willingness of President Trump and U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson to quickly strike a free-trade deal, a number of obstacles stand in the way of a formal trade agreement. These include the possibility of Britain remaining in the E.U. customs union and rising opposition within the U.K. to further opening agricultural markets to American food products. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

New orders of manufactured durable goods increased 2.1% in July after rising 1.8% (revised) in June and are up 0.3% compared to a year ago. Excluding transportation, new orders fell 0.4% (up 1.1% from last year). Census Bureau Report

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index declined from 0.03 in June to -0.36 in July. All four broad categories of indicators — production, employment, consumption, and sales, orders, & inventories — made negative contributions. Chicago Fed Report

U.S. News

The Financial Times reports that President Trump has announced he is optimistic about the prospects for a trade agreement with China, following a weekend of rising tensions and growing fears of a global economic slowdown. Meanwhile, China’s renminbi weakened to its lowest value against the dollar in eleven years. FT

U.S. Economic Indicators

New home sales fell 12.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 635,000 in July but were 4.3% above the July 2018 rate. The median sales price rose to $312,800, and the inventory of new homes rose to 6.4 months at the current sales rate. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that China has announced it will impose tariffs on an additional $75 billion worth of U.S. goods in retaliation for planned U.S. tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese goods. The new tariffs will apply to most of the remaining goods that China has not yet imposed punitive levies on, including U.S. auto parts, apparel, chemicals, and textiles. WSJ

The Washington Post reports that the U.S. manufacturing sector has contracted for the first time since 2009, according to the latest reading of the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI). The decline in the closely-watched indicator suggests that the manufacturing sector, buffeted by headwinds from slowing global economic conditions, is on the verge of recession. WaPo

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) increased 0.5% in July following a 0.1% decline in June. The improvement was driven by housing permits, unemployment claims, stock prices, and credit conditions, although the manufacturing sector remains weak. Conference Board Report

Initial jobless claims fell 12,000 to 209,000 last week. The four-week moving average rose 500 to 214,500. DOL Report

U.S. News

The Washington Post reports that the U.S. federal deficit is set to expand by $800 billion more than expected over the next decade, deepening concerns that policymakers have fewer tools than in the past to bolster the economy in the event of a recession. A wider deficit gives the federal government less room to spend or pass tax cuts, while already-low interest rates leave little room for the Fed to make major cuts. WaPo

According to the Wall Street Journal, Fed officials viewed their move to cut interest rates last month as a mid-cycle “recalibration” of monetary policy rather than the start of a more aggressive easing cycle. The extent to which the Fed may lower rates in the coming months is uncertain, especially given disagreement among Fed officials about whether recent weak inflation is temporary or likely to persist in the absence of intervention. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Existing home sales rose 2.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.42 million in July and are up 0.6% compared to a year ago. NAR notes that falling mortgage rates are nudging buyers into the market, though the supply of affordable homes remains low. NAR Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, strict lending requirements for home loans put in place after the financial crisis are beginning to erode, making it easier for homebuyers with low credit scores or high debt levels to receive a loan. Borrowers took out $45 billion of unconventional loans in 2018, the most in a decade, leading some analysts to worry that competition for customers is causing lenders to overly loosen standards. WSJ

The Financial Times reports that the U.S. and Japan are rushing to finalize a preliminary trade deal to partially relieve both countries from the commercial tensions weighing on the world economy. The agreement will likely involve Japan further opening its agricultural market to American goods in exchange for exemptions on auto tariffs and other industrial levies. FT