Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell from +0.75 in January to -1.09 in February. All four broad categories of indicators decreased from January as two categories of indicators – production and consumption – contributed negatively to the overall index, while the other two categories of indicators – employment and sales, orders, and inventories – contributed positively. Chicago Fed Report

Existing home sales fell 6.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.2 million in February but were up 9.1% compared to a year ago. Home sales increased on a month-on-month basis only in the West but increased on a year-on-year basis in all four major regions. NAR Report

U.S. News

The New York Times reports that the persistence of historically high unemployment claims may be partially explained by the prevalence of multiple claims from the same individuals. In California, for example, 80 percent of unemployment applications in the state last month were filed by individuals who had been laid off in 2020, gotten back to work, and then been laid off again. NYT

The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. economic recovery is gearing up as consumer spending on many in-person services, including gyms and salons, climbs to the highest levels since the pandemic began. Economists predicted some surge from “pent-up demand” among higher-income Americans who accumulated savings during the pandemic, but many forecasts have recently been revised further upward after the approval of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package and the early success of widespread vaccination campaigns. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims increased 45,000 to 770,000 last week. The four-week moving average decreased 16,000 to 746,250. DOL Report

U.S. News

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) rose 0.2% in February following a 0.5% increase in January. The broad-based improvement in the LEI in February suggests growth should continue well into this year, though some component measures related to manufacturing and residential housing showed signs of weakness. Conference Board Report

U.S. Economic Indicators

Privately-owned housing starts decreased 10.3% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.42 million (down 9.3% year-over-year). Housing permits dropped 10.8% to a 1.68 million annual pace (up 17.0% from last year). Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

The New York Times reports that, following a surge in retail sales in January, a sharper-than-expected drop in February revealed the extent to which consumer spending growth remains reliant on stimulus payments. Looking forward, recovery in the retail sector is expected to be bumpy and contingent on factors such as further stimulus, vaccine deployment, shifts in employment, and warmer weather. NYT

U.S. Economic Indicators

Retail sales fell 3.0% in February but were up 6.3% from last year. Core sales — which exclude autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services — decreased 3.5% from the prior month. Census Bureau Report

Business inventories increased 0.3% in January but were down 1.6% from January of last year. Manufacturers’ sales rose 1.9% and were up 0.8% compared to a year ago. Census Bureau Report

Industrial production decreased 2.2% in February and is down 4.2% year-over-year. Capacity utilization fell 1.7 percentage points to 73.8%. Fed Report