Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

The U.S. trade deficit decreased from $55.5 billion in June (revised) to $54.0 billion in July. The goods deficit fell by $1.6 billion while the services surplus fell by $0.1 billion. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, New York Fed leader John Williams says the U.S. central bank will act as appropriate to keep the economic expansion on track, noting that July’s rate cut was the right move for supporting the Fed’s dual mandate goals. Williams stated that while the economy is currently in a “good place,” low inflation and an uncertain international outlook remain areas to watch. WSJ

Bloomberg reports that strong consumer spending is the main driver of current global economic growth, but concerns are rising that weakness in manufacturing activity may spill over into hiring, putting pressure on household spending. Recent surveys suggest that factory employment is already weakening around the world, while the latest dip in U.S. consumer sentiment reflects concerns about higher prices due to tariffs. Bloomberg

U.S. Economic Indicators

The ISM Manufacturing Index declined 2.1 percentage points to 49.1 in August. The Employment Index fell 4.3 percentage points to 47.4, while the New Orders Index fell 3.6 percentage points to 47.2. ISM Report

Construction spending rose 0.1% in July to an annualized rate of $1.29 trillion. Private construction fell 0.1% while public construction rose 0.4%. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, the latest WSJ survey of U.S. small businesses found that optimism has fallen to its lowest level since 2012 as small companies struggle to cope with rising costs from tariffs on Chinese goods. Small business owners reported difficulties making long-run purchasing and planning decisions amid the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Real disposable personal income rose 0.1% in July after rising 0.3% in June, while real personal consumption expenditure (PCE) rose 0.4%. The PCE price index rose 0.2% (up 1.4% Y/Y) and the core price index rose 0.2% (up 1.6% Y/Y). BEA Report

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell 8.6 points to 89.8 in the final August reading and is down 6.4 points from August of last year. The Index of Consumer Expectations declined 10.6 points to 79.9 while the Current Economic Conditions Index fell 5.4 points to 105.3. University of Michigan

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that more than 80% of U.S. companies surveyed by the U.S.-China Business Council have been impacted by trade tensions with China this year, with around 37% reporting that their sales in China have suffered due to concerns from Chinese companies about doing business with American enterprises. The vast majority of companies, however, indicated that they do not plan to move operations out of China. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The second estimate of Q2 GDP indicates that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.0%, down slightly from the prior estimate of 2.1%. The latest reading reflects downward revisions to government spending, exports, and residential investment that were partially offset by an upward revision to consumer spending. BEA Report

The U.S. Census Bureau Advance Economic Indicators Report shows that the goods deficit narrowed to $72.3 billion in July from $74.2 billion in June. Meanwhile, wholesale inventories rose 0.2% and retail inventories rose 0.8%. Census Bureau Report

The National Association of Realtors pending home sales index declined 2.5% in July (down 0.3% Y/Y).  NAR reports that economic uncertainty has held back potential demand, and there continues to be a shortage of moderately-priced homes. NAR Report

Initial jobless claims rose 4,000 to 215,000 last week. The four-week moving average fell 500 to 214,500. DOL Report

U.S. News

The Financial Times reports that analysts have lowered profit expectations for U.S. corporations by the largest margin in three years as the trade war with China and a dimming global economic outlook weigh on earnings and expansion plans. Last month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis made a significant downward revision to 2018 corporate profits, lowering its previous estimate by $188 billion. FT

Matt Phillips reports for the New York Times that the recent decline in China’s stockpile of dollars suggests that China is selling dollars and buying renminbi in an attempt to prop up China’s currency, rather than intentionally devaluing it to offset impacts of the trade war. Much of the renminbi’s recent decline can be attributed to economic factors largely outside of Beijing’s control, including weakening global demand for Chinese exports. NYT