Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (“JOLTS”), a closely-watched measure of labor market health, indicated there were 7.1 million job openings at the end of August, little changed from July. Hires edged down to 5.8 million, while the quits rate was essentially unchanged at 2.3 percent. BLS Report

U.S. News

According to the Financial Times, Chinese officials are offering to increase purchases of U.S. agricultural products in an attempt to reach an interim trade agreement similar to the limited agreement reached between the U.S. and Japan earlier this year. Both sides are looking for reasons to stave off the next round of tariff hikes scheduled for October 15 and to “reset” negotiations before a potential November meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. FT

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Federal Reserve is planning to increase its purchases of short-term Treasuries to prevent recurrence of recent cash shortages in short-term lending markets. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the central bank’s move to increase bank reserves is not quantitative easing as it is intended to help officials better control the benchmark federal funds rate and not to provide economic stimulus. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 1.3 points to 101.8 in September as seven components eased and three were unchanged. Despite edging downward, the Index remains historically high and signals continued job creation, capital spending, and inventory investment. NFIB Report

The headline Producer Price Index (“PPI”) for final demand decreased 0.3% in September and was up 1.4% from September of last year. The core — which removes volatile prices of food, energy, and trade services — was unchanged in September and was up 1.7% from a year ago. BLS Report

U.S. News

The Financial Times reports that the U.S. has added 28 Chinese technology groups to the entity list which will require U.S. suppliers to obtain a special license to continue selling to them, citing the Chinese organizations’ involvement in human rights abuses against Uighurs and other minorities in Xinjiang. While the Chinese foreign ministry has publicly criticized the U.S. decision, trade talks between the U.S. and China are set to resume this week as planned. FT

The Wall Street Journal reports that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of an independent U.S. central bank while discussing the legacy of 1930s Fed leader Marriner Eccles earlier this week. Powell’s remarks come amid unprecedented political pressure on the Fed to lower rates to stimulate economic activity. WSJ

U.S. News

Bloomberg reports that Chinese officials are signaling increasing reluctance to agree to a broad trade deal during this week’s round of trade talks, indicating that they are unwilling to discuss Chinese industrial policy reform or government subsidies. With key U.S. demands taken off the table, hopes for a comprehensive trade deal in the near term remain muted. Bloomberg

According to the Wall Street Journal, Kansas City Fed leader Esther George says she isn’t concerned about low inflation levels, which she views as part of normal, temporary fluctuations that do not warrant a policy response. Although George dissented against both quarter-point rate cuts earlier this year, she indicated that future policy adjustments may be necessary if data clearly point to a “broadly weaker economy.” WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The U.S. economy added 136,000 jobs in September, below expectations. The unemployment fell to 3.5%, the labor force participation rate was unchanged at 63.2%, and average hourly earnings annual growth declined to 2.9%. BLS Report

The U.S. trade deficit increased from $54.0 billion in July to $54.9 billion in August. The goods deficit rose by $0.8 billion while the services surplus fell by $0.1 billion. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, the Fed is expected to vote next week to ease liquidity and capital rules for large U.S. banks, lowering regulatory costs for regional lenders with under $700 billion in assets. The move represents the latest in a series of changes intended to soften the impact of regulations imposed under the Dodd-Frank law. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

New factory orders for manufactured goods declined 0.1% in August following a 1.4% increase in July and are down 0.1% compared to a year ago. New orders excluding transportation were unchanged while new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft fell 0.4%. Census Bureau Report

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index fell 3.8 points to 52.6 in September. The New Orders Index fell 6.6 points to 53.7, while the Employment Index decreased 2.7 points to 50.4. ISM Report

Initial jobless claims rose 4,000 to 219,000 last week. The four-week moving average was unchanged at 212,500 (revised). DOL Report

U.S. News

Bloomberg reports that the median estimate for September job growth is the lowest monthly jobs projection in seven years apart from months affected by severe weather events or government shutdowns. Although the labor market remains tight by historical standards, there is concern that decelerating global demand and weakening manufacturing activity may start to affect U.S. businesses’ hiring plans. Bloomberg