Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

New orders of manufactured durable goods declined 1.1% in September after rising 0.3% (revised) in August and are down 0.8% compared to a year ago. Excluding transportation, new orders fell 0.3% (up 0.8% from last year). Census Bureau Report

New home sales fell 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 701,000 in September but were 15.5% above the September 2018 rate. The median sales price fell to $299,400, and the inventory of new homes was unchanged at 5.5 months at the current sales rate. Census Bureau Report

Initial jobless claims fell 6,000 to 212,000 last week. The four-week moving average fell 750 to 215,000. DOL Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, stagnating or declining business activity across developed economies in the fourth quarter suggests that the recent wave of interest rate cuts by central banks has yet to turn around a slowing global economy. Factories around the world are struggling under the weight of tariffs and slowing investment as both businesses and customers opt to wait out a lengthening period of trade uncertainty. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The FHFA House Price Index shows that U.S. house prices edged up 0.2% in August and were up 4.6% from year-ago levels. Year-over-year house price changes were positive in all nine census divisions. FHFA Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that policymakers in Oregon are experimenting with new zoning laws in an effort to tackle the affordable housing crisis, part of a growing trend of U.S. states attempting to alleviate housing shortages by liberalizing zoning laws. Oregon cities of a certain size will be required to allow multi-unit residential buildings in neighborhoods of single-family homes, with the intention of spurring new construction and increasing the total number of available housing units. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Existing home sales fell 2.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.38 million in September but are up 3.9% compared to a year ago. NAR notes that the inventory shortage is driving up prices and preventing home sales growth. NAR Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the New York Fed injected $99.9 billion in temporary liquidity and $7.5 billion in permanent reserves into financial markets as part of an ongoing effort to tame volatility in short-term rate markets. While banks didn’t take all the short-term liquidity offered by the Fed in its overnight repo operation, the Fed’s purchase of Treasury bills drew strong interest from banks. WSJ

Bloomberg reports that continued weakness in Japanese and South Korean export data reinforces the view that more needs to be done to bolster demand amid the lack of momentum in global trade. At last week’s annual IMF meeting in Washington, the Fund’s Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, called for fiscal policy to play a more active role in supporting growth in major economies. Bloomberg

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that Christine Lagarde, former IMF leader and incoming president of the ECB, stated that the U.S. is at risk of losing its global leadership role and urged policymakers to end the trade war between the U.S. and China. She also warned that the Fed should refrain from lowering interest rates because it might accelerate inflation too much given the low level of U.S. unemployment. WSJ

According to the Financial Times, wind power industry leaders have warned that the global trade war is endangering progress on renewable energy by inflating prices and disrupting supply chains. Although the costs of wind turbines and other renewable energy technologies have fallen dramatically over the past decade, trade tariffs, protectionist policies, and a worsening environment for cross-border investment threaten to undermine improvements in the global cost of clean energy. FT

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) declined 0.1 percent in September following a 0.2 percent (revised) decline in August. Weakness in the manufacturing sector and the interest rate spread more than offset improvements in stock prices and credit conditions. Conference Board Report

U.S. News

The Financial Times reports that China’s economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly 30 years in 2019 Q3, growing just 6% compared to a year earlier. The weak growth figure was below analysts’ expectations and underscores the collective impact of the U.S.-China trade war, slowing income growth, and cooling manufacturing investment. FT

Justin Lahart reports for the Wall Street Journal that as U.S. consumers shift away from owning physical assets like cars, houses, and movies, rental and streaming services may give consumers more flexibility to trim expenses during a downturn. The flexibility of “asset-light” consumers, however, may leave businesses that rely on rentals and subscription services especially vulnerable to the next recession. FT