Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

Real disposable personal income rose 0.3% in September after a 0.5% (revised) increase in August while real personal consumption expenditure (PCE) rose 0.2%. The PCE price index was unchanged (up 1.3% Y/Y) as was the core PCE index (up 1.7% Y/Y). BEA Report

Initial jobless claims rose 5,000 to 218,000 last week. The four-week moving average fell 500 to 214,750. DOL Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Fed’s decision to lower interest rates by another 25 basis points this week — the third consecutive rate cut — generated less opposition than last month’s rate cut but was still dissented by two regional Fed leaders. Both Eric Rosengren of Boston and Esther George of Kansas City preferred to leave borrowing costs unchanged, arguing that the economy’s overall good health did not justify a rate cut. WSJ

According to Bloomberg, Chinese officials have indicated that they are unwilling to make concessions on a number of key issues and are doubtful about reaching a comprehensive, long-term trade deal with the U.S. Both countries are attempting to finalize a “phase one” deal that includes commitments by China to make longer-term reforms, as well as increase purchases of U.S. agricultural products. Bloomberg

U.S. Economic Indicators

The advance estimate of Q3 GDP indicates that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.9%, above the consensus estimate of 1.7%. Consumer spending, government spending, and residential investment contributed positively, while business investment and net exports dragged on growth. BEA Report

The ADP Employment Report shows that private-sector employment increased by 125,000 jobs in October, in line with expectations. The services sector added 138,000 jobs, however the goods-producing sector lost 13,000 jobs. ADP Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. Treasury is considering debuting several potential new debt products, including a 20-year Treasury bond and a new floating-rate note linked to the Fed’s preferred LIBOR replacement, known as the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR). Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stated that the Treasury is also “seriously considering” a 50-year Treasury bond as the administration looks to take advantage of low interest rates to slow rising borrowing costs. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index edged down from 126.3 (revised) in September to 125.9 in October. Optimism eased slightly as consumers were less positive in their assessment of future business conditions and job prospects. Conference Board Report

The National Association of Realtors pending home sales index rose 1.5% in September (up 3.9% Y/Y).  NAR reports that although housing shortages are causing home prices to rise faster than incomes, buyers’ purchasing power has risen due to more favorable interest rates. NAR Report

U.S. News

According to the New York Times, Americans’ views of the economy are so divided along partisan lines that in the absence of outright recession, economic performance may matter less in the upcoming presidential election than in the past. Survey results suggest that a strong majority of registered Republicans view business conditions positively, compared to less than a quarter of registered Democrats. NYT

Nick Timiraos reports for the Wall Street Journal that Fed policymakers are likely to cut rates for a third time at this week’s meeting to provide additional ‘insurance’ aimed at providing support at a time of rising risks. The latest rate cuts appear to have boosted household spending on long-lasting, big-ticket items such as housing, autos, and durable appliances. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The U.S. Census Bureau Advance Economic Indicators Report shows that the goods deficit narrowed to $70.4 billion in September from $73.1 billion (revised) in August. Meanwhile, wholesale inventories fell 0.3% and retail inventories rose 0.3%. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, manufacturing may not be the economic bellwether it used to be given the sector’s declining share of total output and employment. Now that the American economy relies less on the production of goods and more on the provision of services, it is unclear to what extent a manufacturing slowdown will spill over into the broader economy. WSJ

Bloomberg reports that talk of recession in the past few months has been generally restricted to the financial, industrial, and technology sectors, according to a recent analysis of linguistic trends in companies’ public communications. References to recession by firms in the energy, healthcare, and consumer staples sectors, however, remain remarkably low, in line with hard data that show the overall U.S. economy remains healthy. Bloomberg

U.S. Economic Indicators

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose 2.3 points to 95.5 in the final October reading but is down 3.1 points from October of last year. The Index of Consumer Expectations rose 0.8 point to 84.2 while the Current Economic Conditions Index rose 4.7 points to 113.2. University of Michigan

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that renovation and maintenance spending, a barometer of housing market health, is expected to decline over the next year for the first time in a decade. Remodeling activity tends to be an effective bellwether of the housing market and consumer confidence, as home sellers tend to remodel before listing properties and homeowners are more likely to renovate when property values are rising. WSJ

According to a recent Bloomberg survey of economists, Fed officials are expected to reduce rates by another quarter percentage point at next week’s FOMC meetings and are likely to signal a subsequent pause in rate changes. Although the Fed has been refraining from providing forward guidance, the majority of surveyed economists expect Fed Chairman Powell to signal that rates will likely remain on hold at the December meeting. Bloomberg