Publications

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, New York Fed leader John Williams stated the central bank isn’t committed to any particular policy path, though officials are content to leave rates steady for the time being. He noted that the economy “is in a very good place” at the moment, and stressed the importance of the central bank’s flexibility to respond to changing economic facts. WSJ

The Washington Post reports that the House passed a short-term spending bill to extend government funding through December 20, though the bill must still be passed by the Senate and approved by President Trump by midnight Thursday to avert a government shutdown. Both the Senate and the President are widely expected to approve the bill ahead of the deadline. WaPo

U.S. Economic Indicators

Privately-owned housing starts rose 3.8% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.31 million (up 8.5% year-over-year). Housing permits rose 5.0% to a 1.46 million annual pace in October and are up 14.1% from last year. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

The Financial Times reports that President Trump had a “cordial” meeting with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Monday, at which Powell stressed that the direction of monetary policy will depend on incoming economic data. Consistent with his comments at congressional hearings last week, Powell insisted that policy would continue to be dictated by the twin goals of stable inflation and maximum employment. FT

According to Bloomberg, a new University of Massachusetts Boston study revealed that around half of Americans living alone over age 65 lack the financial resources to pay for basic needs such as adequate food and housing. States in the Northeast tend to have the highest rates of elder economic insecurity, while more than half of all financially insecure elders rely on Social Security for at least 90% of their income. Bloomberg

U.S. Economic Indicators

The NAHB Housing Market Index edged one point lower to 70 in November. Conditions for single-family home builders remain positive, helped by low mortgage rates and continued job growth. NAHB Report

U.S. News

Paul Hannon reports for the Wall Street Journal that global cross-border flows of goods are likely to stay weak as 2019 draws to a close, according to the WTO’s latest leading indicator for trade flows. Although there are signs of a pickup in export orders, container shipping, and auto shipments, the improvements have been offset by continued weakness in airfreight and raw materials and electronic components shipments. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that according to some economists, labor market churn – the shuffle of workers between jobs and employers – may be a better predictor of wages, inflation, and productivity than the unemployment rate, possibly explaining why wages have risen less quickly during the current expansion than official unemployment figures would suggest. Wage growth and inflation may stay soft even as labor markets continue to tighten if workers are more reluctant to switch jobs today than in the past. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Retail sales rose 0.3% in October and are up 3.1% from a year ago. Core sales — which exclude autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services —  rose 0.3%. Census Bureau Report

Industrial production declined 0.8% in October (down 1.1% year-over-year) after falling 0.3% (revised) in September. Capacity utilization declined 0.8 percentage point to 76.7 in October. Fed Report

Business inventories were essentially unchanged in September but were up 3.6% from September of last year. Manufacturers’ sales declined 0.2% in September and were down 0.5% compared to a year ago. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has announced that Democrats are moving toward an agreement with the Trump administration to resolve key issues currently holding up passage of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Progressive Democrats have been pushing for stronger labor protections and enforcement provisions to prevent U.S. companies from moving across the border to cut costs. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The headline Producer Price Index (“PPI”) for final demand increased 0.4% in October and was up 1.1% from October of last year. The core — which removes volatile prices of food, energy, and trade services — inched up 0.1% in October (up 1.5% from a year ago). BLS Report

Initial jobless claims rose 14,000 to 225,000 last week. The four-week moving average rose 1,750 to 217,000. DOL Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, the number of jobless Americans receiving unemployment benefits has flatlined near historically low levels, a consequence of stricter state eligibility requirements following the last recession and a tight labor market. Low unemployment and a rising quits rate suggest that many people are leaving jobs voluntarily to pursue better opportunities, leaving them ineligible for benefits in most cases. WSJ

The Financial Times reports that Chinese investment growth has slowed to its lowest level in two decades, the latest sign that Beijing’s attempts to prop up the domestic economy may be insufficient in the face of a deepening slowdown exacerbated by an unresolved trade war with the U.S. So far, Chinese stimulus efforts have been limited to tax and banking reforms, unlike more extensive measures taken during previous slowdowns. FT