Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declined from 126.1 (revised) in October to 125.5 in November. Consumers’ assessments of current business and labor market conditions weakened, while expectations for the near-term improved somewhat. Conference Board Report

New home sales fell 0.7% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 733,000 but were up 31.6% from October 2018. The median sales price rose to $316,700, and the inventory of new homes edged up to 5.3 months at the current sales rate. Census Bureau Report

The U.S. Census Bureau Advance Economic Indicators Report shows that the goods deficit narrowed to $66.5 billion in October from $70.5 billion in September. Meanwhile, wholesale inventories rose 0.2% and retail inventories rose 0.3%. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

The Financial Times reports that yield-hungry investors are fueling a booming market for securities backed by the riskiest U.S. car loans despite nagging concerns about the health of the American consumer. Issuance of subprime auto asset-backed securities is on track to reach an all-time high in 2019, even as the proportion of seriously delinquent consumer auto loans steadily rises. FT

According to the Wall Street Journal, Chinese officials indicated that trade talks with the U.S. are going smoothly, raising the prospects for a limited deal. The positive message came shortly after Beijing issued new guidelines for stronger protection of intellectual property rights, a core demand from Washington. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index declined from -0.45 in September to -0.71 in October. All four broad categories of indicators — employment, consumption, production, and sales, orders, & inventories — made negative contributions. Chicago Fed Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that large U.S. companies are moderating spending on equipment and other capital investment as an uncertain business environment prompts businesses to postpone or cancel new projects. The pullback in investment began in 2018 with the escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions and may continue well into next year as the general election adds new uncertainty. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, roughly 21 million U.S. homes are set to hit the housing market by 2037 as baby boomers prepare to move out of homeownership. Most of the homes to be vacated by seniors are concentrated in the Southeast and Rust Belt (areas relatively less popular among younger homebuyers), adding to concerns that there will be insufficient demand from Gen Xers and millennials to absorb the flood of homes entering the market over the next two decades. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose 1.3 points to 96.8 in the final November reading but is down 0.7 point from November of last year. The Index of Consumer Expectations rose 3.1 points to 87.3 while the Current Economic Conditions Index declined 1.6 points to 111.6. University of Michigan

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, business activity across the world’s largest economies is poised to remain sluggish as 2019 draws to a close, amid signs that the ongoing manufacturing slowdown may be spreading to the services sector. The latest surveys of purchasing managers suggest that while declines in factory activity may be easing, growth of services has started to decelerate. WSJ

The Washington Post reports that personal loans are up more than 10% from last year, as FinTech apps and websites make it easier than ever for Americans to borrow. Although personal loan debt has risen to levels reminiscent of the last economic crisis, delinquency rates are historically low and borrowers still appear well-positioned to pay off their debt. WaPo

U.S. Economic Indicators

Existing home sales rose 1.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million in October and are up 4.6% compared to a year ago. NAR attributes the rise in sales to low interest rates, continuing job expansion, and favorable mortgage rates. NAR Report

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) declined 0.1 percent in October following a 0.2 percent (revised) decline in September. The LEI declined for the third month in a row due to continued manufacturing weakness and new softness in the labor market. Conference Board Report

Initial jobless claims were unchanged at 227,000 last week. The four-week moving average rose 3,500 to 221,000. DOL Report

U.S. News

The Financial Times reports that 2019 U.S. bond fund inflows are on track for one of their highest years on record as investors in search of yield rush to purchase corporate debt in an environment of very low interest rates. Fed officials warned at their latest rate-setting meeting about growing imbalances in the corporate debt market, noting that deteriorating credit quality and increased risk spreads could amplify the effects of an adverse shock to the economy. FT

According to the Wall Street Journal, President Trump’s decision to allow a November deadline for imposing tariffs on foreign auto imports to lapse without taking action has not removed the threat of potential tariffs. The lack of clear signals from the White House has puzzled auto executives and policymakers in Japan and the E.U., which together account for roughly a third of total U.S. auto imports. WSJ