Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

The U.S. trade deficit decreased from $51.1 billion (revised) in September to $47.2 billion in October. The goods deficit fell by $3.7 billion while the services surplus rose $0.2 billion. Census Bureau Report

Initial jobless claims fell 10,000 to 203,000 last week. The four-week moving average fell 2,000 to 217,750. DOL Report

New factory orders for manufactured goods rose 0.3% in October following a 0.8% (revised) decline in September and are down 0.4% compared to a year ago. New orders excluding transportation were up 0.2%, while new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 1.1%. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the 2017 U.S. tax cuts reduced the overall U.S. tax burden to one of the lowest among the 36 OECD countries. U.S. taxes at all levels of government as a share of GDP declined 2.5% in 2018, part of a longer-term trend of U.S. tax reduction that began with President George W. Bush in 2001. WSJ

According to the Financial Times, a recent survey found that nearly two-thirds of Americans believe this year’s record-breaking stock market rally has had little or no impact on their personal finances, calling into question the relevance of market performance to President Trump’s reelection chances. Only 40% of respondents correctly reported that the stock market had increased in value in 2019, suggesting that most Americans have very little awareness of market movements. FT

U.S. Economic Indicators

The ADP Employment Report shows that private-sector employment increased by 67,000 jobs in November, well below expectations. The services sector added 85,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector lost 18,000 jobs. ADP Report

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index edged down 0.8 percentage point to 53.9 in November. The New Orders Index rose 1.5 points to 57.1, while the Employment Index rose 1.8 points to 55.5. ISM Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that Mexican business leaders and government officials have signaled opposition to certain labor provisions in the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, jeopardizing passage of the trade pact before the turbulent 2020 U.S. election cycle. Mexico’s business community has taken issue with the requirement proposed by House Democrats that U.S. labor inspectors be given access to Mexican factories to investigate U.S.-initiated labor dispute cases. WSJ

U.S. News

The New York Times reports that President Trump has signaled he is in no rush to reach a trade deal with China, indicating that such an agreement could wait until after the 2020 election. The President’s statements cast doubt on the “phase one” agreement reached with Chinese trade officials in mid-October, in which the U.S. postponed adding new tariffs on Chinese goods while China agreed to resume purchases of U.S. agricultural products. NYT

The Wall Street Journal reports that France has announced that the European Union is prepared to retaliate should President Trump follow through on a plan to impose tariffs on French imports. The tariffs on French goods are intended as punishment for France’s new digital-services tax, which the U.S. argues unfairly targets American companies. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The ISM Manufacturing Index fell 0.2 percentage point to 48.1 in November. The Employment Index declined 1.1 percentage points to 46.6, while the New Orders Index fell 1.9 percentage points to 47.2. ISM Report

Construction spending fell 0.8% in October to an annualized rate of $1.29 trillion. Private construction decreased 1.0% while public construction fell 0.2%. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

The Washington Post reports that President Trump has announced tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports from Brazil and Argentina – effective immediately – in response to devaluation of their currencies against the dollar. The surprise policy shift is intended to bolster the competitiveness of American farmers and manufacturers in global markets. WaPo

According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. services surplus is on pace for its steepest annual decline since 2003 as global demand for U.S. services wanes amid cyclical factors including a strong dollar and slowing foreign economies. Other trends affecting the trade balance for services include declining reliance of foreign firms on U.S. technological expertise and the growing numbers of Americans seeking medical and education services abroad to avoid spiraling domestic costs. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Real disposable personal income was down 0.3% in October, but real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) ticked up 0.1%. The PCE price index rose 0.2% (up 1.3% Y/Y), and the core price index rose 0.1% (up 1.6% Y/Y). BEA Report

The second estimate of Q3 GDP indicates that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.1%, up 0.2 point from the first estimate. The reading reflects upward revisions to private inventories, nonresidential investment, and personal consumption, which were offset by downward revisions to state and local government spending. BEA Report

New orders of manufactured durable goods rose 0.6% in October after dropping 1.4% (revised) in September but are down 0.8% compared to a year ago. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6% (up 0.6% from last year). Census Bureau Report

Initial jobless claims fell 15,000 to 213,000 last week. The four-week moving average fell 1,500 to 219,750. DOL Report