Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

New orders of manufactured durable goods fell 2.0% in November after rising 0.2% (revised) in October and are down 1.3% compared to a year ago. Excluding transportation, new orders were unchanged last month (up 0.4% from last year). Census Bureau Report

New home sales rose 1.3% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 719,000 and are up 16.9% from November 2018. The median sales price rose to $330,800, while the inventory of new homes edged down to 5.4 months at the current sales rate. Census Bureau Report

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose from -0.76 (revised) in October to +0.56 in November. Production- and employment-related indicators made positive contributions to the index, while the personal consumption & housing and sales, orders, & inventories categories made negative contributions. Chicago Fed Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that China has announced it will reduce tariffs on imports of frozen pork, pharmaceuticals, and certain high-tech components starting January 1 as Beijing and Washington work to complete a phase-one trade agreement. The plan will reduce import levies on more than 8,000 products from 23 countries and regions that have free-trade agreements with China, paving the way for China to import more U.S. goods without violating international trade rules banning managed trade. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The third estimate of Q3 GDP indicates that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.1%, unchanged from the prior estimate. The increase in real GDP reflects positive contributions from consumer spending, government spending, and residential investment that were partly offset by declines in business investment and net exports. BEA Report

Real disposable personal income rose 0.4% in November, while real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) ticked up 0.3%. The PCE price index rose 0.2% (up 1.5% Y/Y), and the core price index rose 0.1% (up 1.6% Y/Y). BEA Report

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose 2.5 points to 99.3 in the final December reading and is up 1.0 point from December of last year. The Index of Consumer Expectations rose 1.6 points to 88.9, while the Current Economic Conditions Index rose 3.9 points to 115.5. University of Michigan

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the House of Representatives successfully passed legislation to implement the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement with overwhelmingly bipartisan support. The Senate is expected to pass the legislation early next year, leaving ratification by Canada as the final step needed for the trade pact to enter into force. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Existing home sales fell 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million in November but are up 2.7% compared to a year ago. Sales grew in the Northeast and Midwest regions while declining in the South and West. NAR Report

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) was unchanged in November following a 0.2 point decline in October. Strength in residential construction, financial markets, and consumers’ outlook was offset by weakness in manufacturing and labor markets. Conference Board Report

Initial jobless claims fell 18,000 to 234,000 last week. The four-week moving average rose 1,500 to 225,500. DOL Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Trump administration is considering policy proposals to reduce the burden of Americans’ student loan debt, the second-highest form of consumer debt after mortgages. Plans under consideration include refinancing student loans at lower rates, eliminating student debt in bankruptcy, and changing rules for income-based repayment plans. WSJ

The Financial Times reports that the trend of offshoring jobs from high- to low-wage countries is stalling or even reversing as rising labor costs in emerging economies reduce the benefits of shifting operations overseas. Other factors are also pushing many companies towards “reshoring” jobs back to their home countries, including rising shipping costs, a desire to be closer to customers, and concern about brand image. FT

U.S. News

Greg Ip reports for the Wall Street Journal that even in a prolonged economic expansion, U.S. job creation can only continue for so long before being constrained by a lack of people available to join the workforce. A limited number of working age people, falling fertility, stagnant immigration, and an aging population are putting downward pressure on the capacity for future job growth. WSJ

The Financial Times reports that the United States has indicated it is preparing to shift its focus to the trade confrontation with the European Union after enacting the U.S.-Mexico-Canada-Agreement and securing a phase one agreement with China. U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer stated that the focus will be on using tariffs to reduce the trade deficit with Europe. FT

U.S. Economic Indicators

Privately-owned housing starts rose 3.2% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.37 million (up 13.6% year-over-year). Housing permits rose 1.4% to a 1.48 million annual pace in November and are up 11.1% from last year. Census Bureau Report

Industrial production rebounded 1.1% in November (down 0.8% year-over-year) after falling 0.9% (revised) in October. Capacity utilization rose 0.7 point to 77.3 in November. Fed Report

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (“JOLTS”), a closely-watched measure of labor market health, indicated that the number of job openings edged up to 7.3 million in October. The number of hires was little changed at 5.8 million, while the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3%. BLS Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, the United States and Mexico appear to have resolved the dispute over labor inspectors that threatened to derail implementation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer released a letter Monday clarifying that while the latest version of the pact calls for U.S. Labor Department officials to act as attachés to U.S. consulates in Mexico, such personnel will not be labor inspectors. WSJ