Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims fell 2,000 to 222,000 last week. The four-week moving average rose 4,750 to 233,250. DOL Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, the latest Conference Board global survey of CEOs found that fear of an economic decline was the top-ranked concern among U.S. chief executives heading into 2020. Other top concerns among U.S. CEOs for the new year include more intense competition, labor market tightness, and global political instability. WSJ

The New York Times reports that China has moved to inject more cash into its financial system by lowering the reserve requirement ratio for banks, freeing up an additional $115 billion for lending. While the latest stimulus effort is relatively modest given the overall size of the Chinese economy, it suggests that Beijing is especially concerned about any new signs of slowdown as officials prepare closely watched estimates of year-end growth. NYT

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index edged down from 126.8 (revised) in November to 126.5 in December. Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, while near-term expectations for jobs and financial prospects softened. Conference Board Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that President Trump has announced he will sign the “Phase One” trade agreement between the U.S. and China on January 15. The signing ceremony will take place in Washington, D.C., with the President to travel to Beijing later on for “Phase Two” negotiations addressing thornier issues such as technology transfer and Chinese economic subsidies. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The U.S. Census Bureau Advance Economic Indicators Report shows that the goods deficit narrowed to $63.2 billion in November from $66.8 billion in October. Meanwhile, wholesale inventories were unchanged and retail inventories fell 0.7%. Census Bureau Report

The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index rose 1.2% in November (up 7.4% Y/Y).  NAR reports that despite the ongoing decline in housing inventory, favorable conditions for home contracts are expected to last throughout 2020. NAR Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that an additional 1.3 million American workers will be eligible for overtime pay in the new year under the first federal overhaul of overtime requirements in more than 15 years. The change in the annual salary threshold from $23,660 to $35,568 is largely acceptable to businesses and falls far short of the more sweeping version pursued by the Obama administration. WSJ

According to the Financial Times, business loans held by U.S. banks have essentially stalled in the second half of 2019 as a slowdown in capital investment and weakness in the industrial economy weigh on demand for loans. Growth has been largely confined to small and midsized banks whose clients are less exposed to global trade frictions and less likely to turn to bond markets to raise funds. FT

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that wages for nonsupervisory, rank-and-file workers are rising at the fastest pace in more than a decade, a sign that the U.S. labor market has tightened sufficiently to result in pay increases for lower-paid employees. Pay for the bottom 25% of wage earners rose 4.5% in November compared to a year earlier, while wages for the top 25% of earners rose 2.9%. WSJ

David Lynch reports for the Washington Post that although the “Phase One” trade agreement has created the appearance of closer relations between the United States and China, the two countries are still heading towards a partial economic divorce as they pursue policies aimed at reducing mutual technological and economic dependence. Even as trade talks show signs of progress, Washington is preparing new regulations to further restrict exports of advanced technologies to China, while Beijing has stepped up efforts to reduce Chinese reliance on American technology suppliers. WaPo

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims fell 13,000 to 222,000 last week. The four-week moving average rose 2,250 to 228,000. DOL Report

U.S. News

The Financial Times reports that strong online purchases provided a boost to holiday retail sales, underlining both the strength of U.S. consumer spending and the challenges facing traditional brick-and-mortar retailers. E-commerce sales accounted for almost 15% of total sales during the crucial holiday shopping season, rising 18.8% over the period between November 1 and Christmas Eve compared to just 1.2% sales growth for physical stores. FT

According to the Wall Street Journal, the White House could soon face significant legal challenges to its use of Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods as part of its broader trade war strategy. Recent court victories by companies and business groups challenging the administration’s authority to impose tariffs under other sections of trade law may encourage new legal challenges to China-specific duties. WSJ