Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims fell 9,000 to 214,000 last week. The four-week moving average fell 9,500 to 224,000. DOL Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that China has confirmed that its chief trade negotiator will travel to Washington early next week to sign a phase-one trade agreement with the U.S. Under the agreement, China would greatly increase purchases of U.S. farm products, further open its financial sector, and pledge to not devalue the yuan to help Chinese exporters. WSJ

According to the Financial Times, the World Bank’s latest set of global growth forecasts suggest that easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China are unlikely to lead to a rapid improvement in the world economy. Global growth is expected to edge up only slightly from 2.4% in 2019 to 2.5% this year, with the outlook for advanced economies notably weaker than that of emerging markets. FT

U.S. Economic Indicators

The ADP Employment Report shows that private-sector employment increased by 202,000 jobs in December, above expectations. The services sector added 173,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector added 29,000 jobs. ADP Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Senate Finance Committee has approved the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which will now head to the full Senate for a vote. The new trade agreement has broad political support and is expected to pass next week, though the start of impeachment proceedings against President Trump could complicate the timing of the vote. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The U.S. trade deficit decreased from $46.9 billion (revised) in October to $43.1 billion in November. The goods deficit fell by $3.9 billion while the services surplus edged down less than $0.1 billion. Census Bureau Report

New factory orders for manufactured goods fell 0.7% in November following a 0.2% (revised) increase in October and are down 0.7% compared to a year ago. New orders excluding transportation were up 0.3%, while new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft fell 0.3%. Census Bureau Report

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index rose 1.1 points to 55.0 in December. The New Orders Index declined 2.2 points to 54.9, while the Employment Index declined 0.3 point to 55.2. ISM Report

U.S. News

The Financial Times reports that vacancies in U.S. shopping malls at the end of 2019 were at their highest level in over 20 years, reflecting growing pressure on brick-and-mortar retailers amid the rise in online shopping. Total holiday retail sales in 2019 grew 3.4% compared to a year earlier, while year-over-year sales growth at physical stores was a mere 1.2%. FT

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, a new study found that firm-specific state and local government tax breaks intended to attract companies and boost employment offer little in the way of economic benefits to the regional economy outside of the targeted industry. The researchers found that counties using incentives to lure businesses saw employment rise by around 1,500 jobs on average in the targeted industry but had no impact on broader, countywide employment. WSJ

The New York Times reports that according to former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, the Fed has enough alternate tools at its disposal – including mass bond-buying and promises to keep rates lower for longer – to largely compensate for its limited room to cut interest rates in the event of another downturn. Bernanke noted, however, that should the neutral interest rate continue to fall, a “moderate increase in the inflation target or significantly greater reliance on active fiscal policy for economic stabilization” may become necessary. NYT

U.S. Economic Indicators

The ISM Manufacturing Index decreased 0.9 percentage point to 47.2 in December, its lowest reading since June 2009. The Employment Index fell 1.5 percentage points to 45.1, while the New Orders Index eased 0.4 percentage point to 46.8. ISM Report

Construction spending increased 0.6% in November to an annualized rate of $1.32 trillion. Private construction improved 0.4% and public construction rose 0.9%. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the number of job cuts due to companies filing for bankruptcy reached 62,100 in 2019, the highest since 2005. While the majority of job cuts were in the retail sector, systemic headwinds led to major cuts in the  transportation and mining sectors as well. WSJ

Earnie Tedeschi reports for the New York Times that wage growth among low-wage workers has outpaced growth among high-wage workers by the widest margin in over 20 years. While employers have had to compete for workers through raising wages due to low unemployment, increases in state and local minimum wages have also played a role in boosting wages among the lowest earners. NYT