Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims fell 10,000 to 204,000 last week. The four-week moving average fell 7,750 to 216,250. DOL Report

Retail sales rose 0.3% in December and were up 5.8% from a year ago. Core sales — which exclude autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services —  rose 0.5%. Census Bureau Report

Business inventories edged down 0.2% in November but were up 2.7% from November of last year. Manufacturers’ sales rose 0.3% in November and were down 2.0% compared to a year ago. Census Bureau Report

The NAHB Housing Market Index fell one point to 75 in January after reaching a two-decade high last month. According to NAHB, low interest rates and a healthy labor market will contribute to further home building gains in 2020. NAHB Report

U.S. Economic Indicators

The headline Producer Price Index (“PPI”) for final demand edged up 0.1% in December and is up 1.3% year-over-year. The core — which removes the volatile prices of food, energy, and trade services — also rose 0.1% in December and is up 1.5% from a year ago.  BLS Report

The January Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity was little changed as the headline index inched up 1.5 points to 4.8. The new orders index rose 4.9 points to 6.6, while the shipments index declined 0.9 point to 8.6; meanwhile, the index for number of employees fell 1.4 points to 9.0, and the hours worked index was positive, indicating a slightly longer workweek. NY Fed Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. and China are preparing to sign the first phase of a trade deal this morning that will include around $200 billion in Chinese purchases of American goods and services over the next two years. The pact is also expected to include suspension of planned U.S. tariff increases, reductions of some existing U.S. tariffs, and pledges from China to give U.S. companies greater access to its financial sector and better intellectual property protection. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 2.0 points to 102.7 in December as two components improved, six weakened, and two were unchanged. Despite the dip in the index, an increased number of small business owners reported better business conditions and improved sales expectations. NFIB Report

Consumer prices rose 0.2% in December (up 2.3% from a year ago). The “core” CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.1% in December and is up 2.3% from last year. BLS Report

U.S. News

The Financial Times reports that China’s export growth slowed to just 0.5% last year – the lowest reading in three years – as trade tensions with the United States and a decelerating global economy took their toll. Improvement in China’s exports will depend on economic recovery of China’s trading partners; the partial trade deal with the U.S. due to be signed later this week will likely have only a marginal effect. FT

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. manufacturers are raising wages, offering signing bonuses, and covering relocation costs to attract job candidates from farther away at a time of record-low unemployment and intense competition for skilled workers. Half a million factory jobs are currently unfilled, the most in nearly two decades, while Americans are moving around the country at the lowest rate in at least 70 years. WSJ

The Washington Post reports that women accounted for more than half of nonfarm U.S. payroll employment in December, the second time on record that women have out numbered men in the workforce. Women’s share of the labor force has been growing steadily over the past few years as industries with higher proportions of women, including health care and education, grow much faster than male-dominated industries such as manufacturing and construction. WaPo

U.S. Economic Indicators

The U.S. economy added 145,000 jobs in December, below expectations. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5%, the labor force participation rate was unchanged at 63.2%, and average hourly earnings annual growth was 2.9%. BLS Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, New York Fed President John Williams stated that low interest rates in advanced economies are likely to persist for some time, posing challenges for how central banks operate. He noted that current low rate levels are largely due to “demographic changes, slow productivity growth, and demand for safe assets,” all longer-term trends unlikely to change in the near future. WSJ