Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 1.6 points to 104.3 in January as six components improved, two weakened, and two were unchanged. Sales expectations and earnings trends improved significantly, while expectations for better business conditions weakened slightly. NFIB Report

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (“JOLTS”), a closely-watched measure of labor market health, indicated that the number of job openings fell 364,000 to 6.4 million in December. The number of hires was little changed at 5.9 million, while the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3 percent. BLS Report

U.S. News

According to the New York Times, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify before Congress this week that the Chinese coronavirus epidemic could cause disruptions that spill over to the rest of the global economy, while signaling that the central bank is still comfortable holding interest rates steady for now. His prepared remarks also include a warning about the size of the federal government’s debt, arguing that a more sustainable federal budget would help ensure economic growth over the long term. NYT

U.S. News

The Washington Post reports that the White House is proposing a $4.8 trillion federal budget this week that would cut net domestic discretionary spending by around 5% and set a 15-year target for closing the federal budget deficit. The budget proposal, essentially a statement of the White House’s policy priorities for the upcoming year, includes sharp cuts to the Health and Human Services Department, Education Department, and Department of the Interior while increasing spending for NASA and the Department of Homeland Security. WaPo

The Wall Street Journal reports that the number of people working at small companies was little changed last year, even as larger businesses expanded their payrolls for a record tenth straight year. Finding workers in a tight labor market is especially challenging for small firms, with those in the manufacturing, natural resources, transportation, construction, and retail sectors adding the fewest new workers in 2019. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 1.4% in Q4 and was up 1.8% compared to a year ago. Hours worked increased 1.1% and unit labor costs rose 1.4%. BLS Report

Initial jobless claims fell 15,000 to 202,000 last week. The four-week moving average fell 3,000 to 211,750. DOL Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that China has announced it will reduce tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. goods from 10% to 5% as part of its efforts to implement the phase-one trade deal with the U.S. The tariff cuts will go into effect on February 14, and indicate Beijing’s intentions to follow through on implementation of the agreement despite the ongoing coronavirus crisis. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The ADP Employment Report shows that private-sector employment increased by 291,000 jobs in January, well above expectations. The services sector added 237,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector added 54,000 jobs. ADP Report

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index rose 0.6 point to 55.5 in January. The New Orders Index rose 0.9 point to 56.2, while the Employment Index declined 1.7 points to 53.1. ISM Report

The U.S. trade deficit widened from $43.7 billion (revised) in November to $48.9 billion in December. The goods deficit increased by $5.1 billion while the services surplus edged down $0.1 billion. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that a bipartisan group of lawmakers is pushing for the SEC to make changes in the credit-ratings industry to eliminate the conflict of interest where entities that sell bonds also pay for ratings, considered one of the causes of the financial crisis. A previous study by the Journal found evidence that competition among credit ratings firms incentivized loosening standards to win business. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

New factory orders for manufactured goods rose 1.8% in December following a 1.2% (revised) decrease in November but are down 0.6% compared to a year ago. New orders excluding transportation were up 0.6%, while new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft fell 0.8%. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

Bloomberg reports that the U.S. Commerce Department has announced new rules that would clear the way for the U.S. to start imposing punitive tariffs on goods from countries accused of having undervalued currencies, even if such countries have not been found guilty of currency manipulation by the U.S. Treasury. The new rule would allow U.S. companies to file complaints over specific imported products by treating undervalued currencies as a form of unfair subsidy. Bloomberg

According to the New York Times, the rapidly spreading coronavirus is likely to slow China’s progress in meeting its commitments under the initial U.S.-China trade deal. With factories and stores closed throughout China and officials focused on containing the virus, Beijing has less capacity to start purchasing the large amounts of American products necessary to fulfill the terms of the deal. NYT