Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

Privately-owned housing starts fell 3.6% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.57 million (up 21% year-over-year). Housing permits rose 9.2% to a 1.55 million annual pace in January (up 18% from last year). Census Bureau Report

The headline Producer Price Index (“PPI”) for final demand rose 0.5% in January and is up 2.1% year-over-year. The core — which removes the volatile prices of food, energy, and trade services —rose 0.4% in January and is up 1.5% from a year ago.  BLS Report

U.S. News

Bloomberg reports that the International Monetary Fund has reiterated that global economic growth is likely to strengthen somewhat in 2020, despite downside risks from the Wuhan coronavirus and trade tensions. The IMF left its January projection for global growth unchanged, projecting an acceleration to 3.3% growth this year from a 2.9% pace in 2019. Bloomberg

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity picked up in February as the headline index rose 8.1 points to 12.9. The new orders index jumped 15.5 points to 22.1, and the shipments index rose 10.3 points to 18.9; meanwhile, the index for number of employees fell 2.4 points to 6.6, and the hours worked index turned negative, indicating a slightly shorter workweek. NY Fed Report

The NAHB Housing Market Index edged one point lower to 74 in February. NAHB reports that a strong labor market and low interest rates continue to support housing demand, but builder sentiment remains under pressure from rising construction and development costs. NAHB Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the number of new vehicles purchased by U.S. buyers under the age of 35 fell nearly 4.5% last year as car dealers struggle to attract younger buyers, who tend to be more concerned with affordability than brand loyalty. Younger Americans, already dealing with financial pressures from student loans and rent payments, have been priced out of the market for new vehicles as automakers have shifted production toward higher-priced truck and SUVs. WSJ

According to the New York Times, the combination of millennials’ low inflation expectations and inclination towards early retirement achieved through aggressive saving could leave central bankers with less room to cut interest rates and boost growth in future times of economic trouble. High savings rates, while beneficial on an individual level, can exacerbate what economist Lawrence Summers dubs “secular stagnation,” the low-growth, low-inflation state of many advanced economies. NYT

U.S. Economic Indicators

Retail sales rose 0.3% in January and were up 4.4% from a year ago. Core sales — which exclude autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services —  were unchanged. Census Bureau Report

Industrial production declined 0.3% in January (down 0.8% year-over-year) after falling 0.4% (revised) in December. Capacity utilization fell 0.3 point to 76.8. Fed Report

Business inventories edged up 0.1% in December and were up 2.1% from December 2018. Manufacturers’ sales rose 0.5% in December and were up 1.6% compared to a year ago. Census Bureau Report

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose 1.1 points to 100.9 in the preliminary February reading and is up 7.1 points from February of last year. The Index of Consumer Expectations rose 2.1 points to 92.6, while the Current Economic Conditions Index fell 0.6 point to 113.8. University of Michigan

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that Europe’s trade surplus with the United States hit a record high in 2019, increasing the risk of tariff action from the U.S. should ongoing trade talks fail. German automobiles are among the goods most at risk from an increase in U.S. import duties – if a 25% tariff were imposed, production could fall up to 5%. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Consumer prices rose 0.1% in January (up 2.5% from a year ago). The “core” CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% in January (up 2.3% from last year). BLS Report

Initial jobless claims rose 2,000 to 205,000 last week. The four-week moving average was unchanged at 212,000. DOL Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, the International Energy Agency anticipates a decline in overall global oil demand over the first three months of 2020 – the first quarterly decline since the height of the financial crisis – due to a sharp slowdown in Chinese demand driven by the coronavirus outbreak. China accounted for more than three-quarters of global oil demand growth in 2019, and its oil demand has nearly doubled since the 2003 SARS epidemic. WSJ

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that credit-card debt rose to a record high of $930 billion in the final quarter of 2019, part of the broader increase in consumer credit during the ongoing, record-long economic expansion. The share of credit-card debt in serious delinquency rose to the highest level in nearly eight years, raising concerns that some cardholders – especially younger ones – may be struggling with their debt. WSJ

According to Bloomberg, economists are increasingly pessimistic that China’s virus-hit economy will be able to make a speedy recovery, even amid signs that the spread of the disease may be slowing. Businesses in China will likely be slow to return to normality as restrictions on travel remain in place, and China’s outsized influence on the global economy suggests that other countries may still feel the impacts from the crisis for months to come. Bloomberg