Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

Existing home sales rose 6.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million in February and were up 7.2% compared to a year ago. Home sales declined in the Northeast but increased in the South, West, and Midwest. NAR Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. is considering a number of policy interventions including diplomatic action and domestic production cuts to get Russia and Saudi Arabia to back down from their current oil price standoff. The Energy Department has already announced plans to purchase at least 30 million barrels from domestic producers in an effort to prop up the U.S. oil sector as already-struggling producers are hit hard by the historic drop in prices. WSJ

According to the Washington Post, the massive economic stimulus bill released by Senate Republicans this week is facing attacks from all sides as lawmakers disagree about the structure of direct payments and size of loans to airlines and other industries. Disputes over the contents of the bill threaten lawmakers’ ambitious timeline for getting the legislation through the Senate by Monday in a frantic effort to mitigate the rapidly-multiplying economic consequences of the coronavirus spread. WaPo

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) ticked up 0.1 point in February following a 0.7 point increase in January, though the Conference Board notes that the LEI has yet to reflect the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic that escalated in the U.S. in early March. The improvement in the LEI was driven by a recovery in manufacturing that will likely be short-lived due to ongoing global supply chain disruptions and falling demand. Conference Board Report

Initial jobless claims increased 70,000 to 281,000 last week, the highest level for initial claims since September 2017. The four-week moving average rose 16,500 to 232,250. DOL Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the pandemic is hitting local government finances hard as state and city officials increase spending to combat the public health crisis while losing revenue due to the cessation of economic activity. While some localities have amassed large rainy-day funds to draw from during downturns, an extended fiscal crunch will likely necessitate budget cuts, job losses, and federal assistance for many state and local governments. WSJ

According to the New York Times, the Federal Reserve announced it will extend emergency loans to money market mutual funds, a major savings vehicle for millions of Americans with a total value of around $3.8 trillion. The move is the latest in a series of steps the Fed has taken to keep financial markets functioning during the coronavirus pandemic and avoid a repeat of the huge money market fund losses experienced during the 2008 financial crisis. NYT

U.S. Economic Indicators

Privately-owned housing starts fell 1.5% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.60 million (up 39.2% year-over-year). Housing permits fell 5.5% to a 1.46 million annual pace in February but are up 13.8% from last year. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

The New York Times reports that the Trump administration is calling for Congress to act quickly on a $1 trillion stimulus package to counteract the economic impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, including $250 billion in direct check payments to Americans. Secretary Mnuchin reportedly stated that direct cash payments would cover two weeks of pay and be sent out by the end of April, with additional payments possible if the crisis persists. NYT

According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. Travel Association projects that U.S. travel spending will plunge by $355 billion this year and cost 4.6 million American jobs – enough to raise the overall unemployment rate to 6.3% from 3.5%. The spread of coronavirus and government restrictions have created an existential crisis for the global travel industry as companies ranging from big airlines to small tour guides are being forced to shut slash payrolls and even shut down. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Retail sales fell 0.5% in February (up 4.3% from February a year ago). Core sales — which exclude autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services —  were unchanged. Census Bureau Report

Industrial production rose 0.6% in February (unchanged year-over-year) after falling 0.5% (revised) in January. Capacity utilization increased 0.4 point to 77.0 in February. Fed Report

Business inventories declined 0.1% in January but were up 1.0% from January of last year. Manufacturers’ sales declined 0.5% in January but ticked up 0.1% compared to a year ago. Census Bureau Report

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (“JOLTS”), a closely-watched measure of labor market health, indicated that the number of job openings increased to 7.0 million in January. The number of hires was little changed at 5.8 million, while the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3 percent. BLS Report

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity declined in March, as the headline index fell 34.4 points to -21.5, its lowest level since 2009. The new orders index dropped 31.4 points to -9.3, and the shipments index fell 20.6 points to -1.7; meanwhile, the index for number of employees declined 8.1 points to -1.5, and the hours worked index fell 9.6 points to -10.6. NY Fed Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Fed has announced a reduction in the federal-funds rate target range to 0 – 25 basis points and a $700 billion round of quantitative easing as part of a series of actions aimed at stabilizing markets as the novel coronavirus pushes the U.S. economy toward a recession. The severity and length of the economic fallout will depend on the Fed’s ability to keep liquidity flowing, the extent of coronavirus testing capabilities, and the success of fiscal stimulus measures intended to boost demand. WSJ

The Financial Times reports that the effects of the coronavirus are beginning to ripple through the real economy as service firms, those most dependent on human contact, start suffering losses. While the early consequences of the coronavirus outbreak were largely supply chain disruptions, the spread of the virus in the U.S. is beginning to threaten smaller service companies like restaurant and bar owners with low cash reverses and already-limited credit access. FT