Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index improved from -17.89 in April to +2.61 in May. All four broad categories of indicators – employment; consumption; production; and sales, orders & inventories – contributed positively to the index. Chicago Fed Report

Existing home sales fell 9.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million in May and were down 26.6% compared to year ago. Home sales declined in all four major regions, with the largest decrease occurring in the Northeast. NAR Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that warehouse demand is surging as companies work to retool supply chains to handle increased e-commerce activity and relocate operations closer to consumers. Industrial real estate activity experienced a rapid rebound in May, suggesting that declines early on in the pandemic were due to state lockdowns rather than a structural shift in warehouse demand. WSJ

U.S. News

The Washington Post reports that small and midsize businesses are struggling to secure loans through the Fed’s new Main Street Lending Program as many banks are unwilling or unsure if they will participate in the program. Although still in its early stages, changes to the program – including lowering the minimum loan size, extending the length of the loan, and offering banks higher fees as an incentive – could encourage participation among banks and businesses. WaPo

Conor Sen writes for Bloomberg Opinion that the United States could soon face shortages or price increases for goods if the rebound in consumption continues to outpace production as the economy reopens. Retail sales rose 17.7% in May, while industrial production only rose 1.4%, presenting a troubling gap as producers struggle to rebalance inventories and accurately assess demand. Bloomberg

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims fell 58,000 to 1,508,000 last week. The four week moving average fell 234,500 to 1,773,500. DOL Report

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) increased 2.8% in May following a 6.1% decline in April. While improvements in the labor market, housing permits, and stock prices helped bolster the index in May, the large drop between February and April suggests that the economy is unlikely to recover from recessionary territory in the near term. Conference Board Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, more than 100 million student, auto, and personal loans have gone unpaid since the coronavirus hit the United States earlier this year. While the federal stimulus package permits deferred payments for student loans and federally-backed mortgages for now, lenders will not be able to withstand unpaid loans indefinitely and delinquencies may rise sharply as the recession persists. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Privately-owned housing starts rose 4.3% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 974,000 (down 23.2% year-over-year). Housing permits rose 14.4% to a 1.22 million annual pace in May (down 8.8% from last year). Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, the International Energy Agency predicts that oil demand will experience a record rebound in 2021 of 5.7 million barrels a day as the global economy reopens. Despite a major contraction in oil demand due to the pandemic, production cuts have already helped stabilize the market and futures are up 25% over the past month. WSJ

The New York Times reports that the largest declines in consumer spending have come from the highest-earning quarter of Americans, which has important implications for many low-wage service sector employees who rely on spending by high-income consumers. While spending among poorer Americans has improved thanks to federal stimulus checks, service sector incomes are unlikely to recover until the public health crisis is resolved. NYT

U.S. Economic Indicators

Retail sales rose 17.7% in May but were down 6.1% from a year ago. Core sales – which exclude autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services – increased 11.0%. Census Bureau Report

Industrial production increased 1.4% in May but is down 15.3% year-over-year. Capacity utilization increased 0.8 point to 64.8. Fed Report

Business inventories fell 1.3% in April and were down 2.3% from April of last year. Manufacturers’ sales declined 13.5% in April and were down 19.4% compared to a year ago. Census Bureau Report

The NAHB Housing Market Index jumped 21 points to 58 in June. NAHB notes that the housing market is benefiting from low interest rates, increased consumer confidence, and heightened demand for single family homes in lower density areas. NAHB Report