Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

The U.S. Census Bureau Advance Economic Indicators Report shows that the goods deficit fell to $70.6 billion in June from $75.3 billion in May. Meanwhile, wholesale inventories fell 2.0% and retail inventories fell 2.6%. Census Bureau Report

The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index rose 16.6% in June (up 6.3% year-over-year). NAR reports that it has revised its forecast for the housing market upward as a result of the positive contract activity and notes that buyers are taking advantage of record-low mortgage rates. NAR Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that there is mixed evidence as to whether enhanced unemployment benefits deter people from returning to work – a key issue in Congress’ debate over the extension of the additional $600-per-week relief measure. A recent study published by Yale economists finds that more-generous benefits did not lead to larger employment declines, while survey data from the Bipartisan Policy Center revealed that some workers reported not looking for work because their unemployment benefits exceed their previous paycheck. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index decreased from 98.3 (revised) in June to 92.6 in July. Consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions improved, while the near-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions worsened. Conference Board Report

U.S. News

The New York Times reports that the Senate and House of Representatives are pressed for time to reach a consensus on the next coronavirus relief bill, with the extension of jobless aid being one of the most divisive provisions. House lawmakers want to maintain the $600-per-week supplement for unemployment insurance through January, while the Senate bill seeks to eventually replace the lump sum with a benefit of up to 70% of a worker’s prior income. NYT

The Financial Times reports that a new analysis by Accenture finds that U.S. bank profits could be hit twice as much as their European counterparts due to massive provisions for loan losses by U.S. banks. There are several underlying reasons for U.S. banks’ higher loan loss provisions, including greater uncertainty from widespread forbearance programs that undermine their ability to make lending decisions based on credit scores. FT

U.S. Economic Indicators

New orders of manufactured durable goods rose 7.3% in June after rising 15.1% (revised) in May. Excluding transportation, new orders rose 3.3% last month after rising 3.6% the month before. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, Federal Reserve officials warn that the economic recovery could be impeded by low consumer confidence, extended joblessness, and business failures unless the public health response to the coronavirus improves. The FOMC is not expected to announce new stimulus measures at this week’s meetings, instead focusing on how to provide more support for the recovery once the economic outlook becomes more certain. WSJ

The Washington Post reports that the coronavirus pandemic has exacerbated inequality in the U.S. housing market, as wealthier Americans take advantage of low mortgage rates to buy new homes while millions of renters face eviction. Homeowners have also taken advantage of attractive refinancing options to save money, while renters are rapidly losing pandemic lifelines including a federal eviction moratorium and expanded unemployment benefits. WaPo

U.S. Economic Indicators

New home sales increased 13.8% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 776,000 and were up 6.9% from year-ago levels. The median sales prices rose to $329,200 and the inventory of new homes declined to 4.7 months at the current sales rate. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

The Washington Post reports that workers around the country are experiencing a second round of layoffs as Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan money runs out while the pandemic rages on. Although PPP loans are estimated to have saved between 1.5 million and 3.5 million jobs up to this point, economic conditions have not recovered sufficiently for many companies to continue operating once PPP funds run out. WaPo

Bloomberg reports that the phase-one U.S.-China trade deal agreed to earlier this year has come under intense pressure recently as tensions mount over the coronavirus pandemic and the closing of China’s consulate in Houston. Analysts note that both countries should have a strong incentive to stick to the deal to avoid threatening their respective economic recoveries. Bloomberg

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims rose 109,000 to 1,416,000 last week. The four-week moving average decreased 16,500 to 1,360,250. DOL Report

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) increased 2.0% in June following a 3.2% increase in May. While improvements in the labor market and stock prices helped bolster the LEI in June, the resurgence of the virus in several states combined with consumers’ weak economic outlook imply that the U.S. economy will remain in recessionary territory in the near term. Conference Board Report

U.S. News

The Washington Post reports that new data from the online review site Yelp shows that permanent business closures now outweigh temporary ones, with the greatest losses occurring in the restaurant and retail sectors. As many commercial leases expire in the coming months, business owners may choose not to renew given the poor economic outlook, which could lead to additional strain on the labor market. WaPo