Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

The ADP Employment Report shows that private-sector employment increased by 167,000 jobs in July, well below consensus expectations of 1.9 million. The services sector gained 166,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector gained 1,000 jobs. ADP Report

The U.S. trade deficit decreased from $54.8 billion (revised) in May to $50.7 billion in June. The goods deficit fell by $4.0 billion while the services surplus rose by $0.1 billion. Census Bureau Report

The ISM Services PMI rose 1.0 point to 58.1 in July, indicating growth in the services sector for the second straight month. The New Orders Index increased 6.1 points to 67.7, while the Employment Index fell 1.0 point to 42.1. ISM Report

U.S. News

Bloomberg reports that a second round of layoffs looms for workers at small businesses where Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) funds are starting to run out. A recent poll by Cornell University shows that about one in four workers hired back due to PPP were told by their employer that they could be laid off again, revealing the predicament of many small businesses in the absence of additional aid or rapid recovery of business activity. Bloomberg

U.S. Economic Indicators

New factory orders for manufactured goods increased 6.2% in June following a 7.7% increase in May. New orders excluding transportation increased 4.4%, while new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 3.4%. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

According to Bloomberg, surging unemployment insurance claims and decreased job postings in California following a new wave of virus-induced shutdowns could foreshadow broader weakness in the U.S. labor market. National job gains likely slowed in July as virus cases rose, while an increasing share of temporary layoffs may turn permanent. Bloomberg

The Financial Times reports that the U.S. oilfield services sector has been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic as oil producers cut back on capital expenditures in response to lower demand and plunging prices. Service providers doubt the North American market will ever return to its pre-pandemic strength and instead are looking to cut costs and offload U.S. assets as they turn to overseas markets. FT

U.S. Economic Indicators

Construction spending decreased 0.7% in June to an annualized rate of $1.36 trillion. Both private and public construction fell 0.7%. Census Bureau Report

The ISM Manufacturing Index rose 1.6 points to 54.2 in July. The Employment Index rose 2.2 points to 44.3, while the New Orders Index rose 5.1 points to 61.5. ISM Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that U.S. oil refineries operated well below capacity in the second quarter as demand for fuel, especially jet fuel, remained depressed due to the coronavirus pandemic. Fuel makers may have to continue adapting to a lower demand environment as the world increasingly shifts away from fossil fuels towards more renewable energy sources. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Real disposable personal income decreased 1.8% in June, while real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 5.2%. The PCE price index rose 0.4% (up 0.8% Y/Y), and the core price index (excluding food and energy) increased 0.2% (up 0.9% Y/Y). BEA Report

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell 5.6 points to 72.5 in the final July reading and is down 25.9 points from July of last year. The Index of Consumer Expectations fell 6.4 points to 65.9, while the Current Economic Conditions Index fell 4.3 points to 82.8. University of Michigan

U.S. News

Bloomberg reports that falling interest rates have made volatile assets – like gold, bitcoin, and stocks – more attractive to American investors looking to earn a higher return on their savings. Rates for high-yield savings accounts fell by more than half as the personal savings rate reached record highs in recent months, prompting more Americans to turn to the stock market for their long-term investments. Bloomberg

U.S. Economic Indicators

The advance estimate of 2020 Q2 GDP indicates that the U.S. economy contracted at an annualized rate of 32.9% in the second quarter, in line with consensus estimates and the steepest quarterly contraction on record. The contraction in real GDP reflects negative contributions from consumer spending, residential investment, business investment, and state & local government spending that were only slightly mitigated by positive contributions from federal government spending and net exports. BEA Report

Initial jobless claims rose 12,000 to 1,434,000 last week. The four-week moving average rose 6,500 to 1,368,500. DOL Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that while the pandemic has sent car makers’ profits plunging across the globe, a recovery in demand in Western Europe and the U.S. could lead to a brighter picture for the global auto market in the second half of the year. Volkswagen – the world’s biggest car maker by sales – notes that although car deliveries remained in the red in June and July, they improved significantly from April lows, hinting that the auto market is on the path to recovery. WSJ