Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

Consumer prices increased 0.6% in July (up 1.0% from a year ago) after rising 0.6% in June. The “core” CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.6% in July – the largest increase since January 1991 – and is up 1.6% from last year. BLS Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that spending cuts by state and local governments are putting strain on the U.S. economic recovery as Congress debates how much federal aid to provide. Without additional aid, state and local budget shortfalls could reach an estimated $500 billion over the next two fiscal years, thwarting economic growth and threatening essential services. WSJ

Bloomberg reports that filings for IRS Employer Identification Numbers have surged in recent weeks, signaling that more and more Americans are opting to become self-employed as job prospects amid the pandemic remain weak. Recessions often lead to an increase in self-employment, though the current pace of new business filings has far surpassed that of the Great Recession. Bloomberg

U.S. Economic Indicators

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 1.8 points to 98.8 in July as four components improved, five weakened, and one was unchanged. Plans to increase employment and make capital outlays improved, while the economic outlook and sales expectations declined. NFIB Report

The headline Producer Price Index (“PPI”) for final demand rose 0.6% in July but is down 0.4% year-over-year. The core – which removes the volatile prices of food, energy, and trade services – rose 0.3% in July and is up 0.1% from a year ago, the first improvement after three consecutive 12-month declines. BLS Report

U.S. News

The Financial Times reports that signs of weakness are emerging in the U.S. rental market even though renters have largely kept up with their August payments. The proportion of renters using credit cards to pay rent increased, a sign of growing consumer financial stress that may intensify if federal aid programs are not extended and renters see their incomes drop. FT

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (“JOLTS”) report indicates that the number of job openings increased 518,000 to 5.9 million in June. The number of hires decreased to 6.7 million, while the quits rate increased to 1.9 percent. BLS Report

U.S. News

Bloomberg reports that the quick, pandemic-induced recession is showing signs of becoming a much longer downturn as new employment data shows signs of economic scarring. Despite better than expected job gains in July, there are still 13 million fewer jobs than before the pandemic and a larger fraction of jobless workers have been unemployed for 15 weeks or longer. Bloomberg

The New York Times reports that President Trump’s executive directives to extend supplemental unemployment benefits, suspend payroll taxes, extend student loan forbearance, and provide eviction relief are unlikely to provide immediate relief to struggling American households. The complex executive orders present a number of logistical challenges to implementation, and could be challenged in court or superseded if congressional leaders pass a stimulus package on their own. NYT

U.S. Economic Indicators

The U.S. economy added 1.8 million jobs in July, broadly in line with expectations. The unemployment rate fell to 10.2% and labor force participation edged down from 61.5% to 61.4%. BLS Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the market for auto loans – which has increased more than 90% in the past decade – could face significant pressure if expiring economic relief measures lead to a spike in loan defaults. Many auto loans are now securitized, making it more difficult for borrowers to modify repayment terms during the current economic downturn. WSJ

The Financial Times reports that the White House has reinstated a 10% tariff on certain Canadian aluminum imports, citing a surge in Canadian aluminum entering the U.S. since the USMCA trade deal went into effect. Several American industry groups have criticized the move, arguing that Canada is an important, reliable source of raw aluminum for domestic manufacturers. FT

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims fell 249,000 to 1,186,000 last week. The four-week moving average fell 31,000 to 1,337,750. DOL Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that bankruptcy filings by U.S. farmers through June 2020 were up 8% from a year earlier, despite record levels of federal aid. The coronavirus pandemic hit on top of an ongoing six-year downturn in the Farm Belt, further depressing agricultural prices already under pressure from foreign competition and retaliatory trade actions. WSJ

Bloomberg reports that House lawmakers and the White House are still far from an agreement on a new coronavirus relief package ahead of a self-imposed Friday deadline. White House officials have indicated that the President is prepared to use executive authority to extend certain relief measures, including student loan forbearance, eviction moratoria, and supplemental unemployment benefits if an agreement cannot be reached. Bloomberg