Publications

U.S. News

The New York Times reports that foot traffic data reveal how consumer shopping behavior has varied in different regions of the country in response to both outbreak severity and certain demographic characteristics. Regions where people are returning to stores more slowly tend to have had more severe outbreaks, be closer to major urban population centers, and have a higher percentage of Democratic voters. NYT

According to the Wall Street Journal, despite reports that President Trump had called off scheduled trade talks with China to discuss the current status of the phase-one trade agreement, negotiators are planning to meet by video in the coming days. While senior aides clarified the President’s comments did not imply that talks are derailed, the recent escalation of tensions alongside political considerations may imperil the Phase one accord over the coming months. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Privately-owned housing starts rose 22.6% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.50 million (up 23.4% year-over-year). Housing permits rose 18.8% to a 1.50 million annual pace in July (up 9.4% year-over-year). Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

The Washington Post reports that unemployed workers may only receive three weeks of supplemental unemployment benefits under President Trump’s recent executive order given the limited pot of federal disaster relief funds made available. Benefits may take weeks to arrive as states race to upgrade their computer systems and make sense of the program’s criteria. WaPo

The Wall Street Journal reports that strong second quarter sales for home improvement and e-commerce retailers demonstrate how the coronavirus pandemic has shifted consumer spending habits. Buoyed by government stimulus checks and social distancing measures, retailers catering to the needs of Americans spending more time at home have flourished while many traditional retail chains have been forced into bankruptcy. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity edged slightly higher in August, as the headline index fell 13.5 points to 3.7. The new orders index fell 15.6 points to -1.7, the shipments index fell 11.8 points to 6.7, and the index for the number of employees rose 2.0 points to 2.4. NY Fed Report

The NAHB Housing Market Index rose 6 points to 78 in August – its highest reading in the 35-year history of the series. NAHB reports that low interest rates and a shift to the suburbs is sustaining demand for single-family homes, but they caution that increasing lumber prices could slow the momentum. NAHB Report

U.S. News

The New York Times reports that cities across the country could face a reduction in services as the coronavirus pandemic takes its toll on budgets, particularly in cities that rely heavily on tourism, sales tax, and state aid to keep their operations running. These budget shortfalls have the potential to widen disparities between cities, as was the case with the Great Recession, unless Congress and the White House can reach an agreement on a relief package that includes aid to state and local governments. NYT

U.S. Economic Indicators

Retail sales rose 1.2% in July, up 2.7% from a year ago. Core sales – which exclude autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services – increased 1.4%. Census Bureau Report

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 7.3% in Q2 and rose 2.2% compared to the previous year. Hours worked decreased 13.7% and unit labor costs increased 12.2%. BLS Report

Industrial production increased 3.0% in July but is down 8.2% year-over-year. Capacity utilization increased 2.1 points to 70.6. Fed Report

Business inventories fell 1.1% in June and have decreased 5.8% since June of last year. Manufacturers’ sales increased 9.8% in June but declined 7.1% compared to year-ago levels. Census Bureau Report

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased 0.3 point to 72.8 in the preliminary August reading and is down 17 points from August of last year. The Index of Consumer Expectations fell 0.4 point to 66.5, while the Current Economic Conditions Index fell 0.3 point to 82.5. University of Michigan

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims fell 228,000 to 963,000 last week. The four-week moving average fell 86,250 to 1,252,750. DOL Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the International Energy Agency forecasts a deeper contraction in global oil demand in 2020 than previously projected, as persistently high coronavirus cases have thwarted the recovery in transport activity. Though prices for crude oil have increased significantly from April lows, they may fall again as production cuts soften and supply levels increase. WSJ

Bloomberg reports that despite a strong rebound thus far in the U.S. auto industry, foot traffic data from auto-making facilities suggests that the recovery may be difficult to sustain given social distancing protocols and high levels of worker absenteeism. While some automakers note that the number of people in their plants may not correlate with production, other manufacturers view this as an indication that operations will not return to normal for some time. Bloomberg