Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

The ADP Employment Report shows that private-sector employment increased by 428,000 jobs in August, below expectations. The services sector gained 389,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector gained 40,000 jobs. ADP Report

New factory orders for manufactured goods rose 6.4% in July following a 6.4% (revised) increase in June. New orders excluding transportation were up 2.1%, while new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 1.9%. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

The Washington Post reports that the White House announced a four-month eviction moratorium for individual Americans making under $99,000 or couples making under $198,000 in an effort to stave off a looming housing crisis. While housing advocates point out that the moratorium merely delays evictions rather than preventing them, the new policy could temporarily help as many as 40 million Americans struggling to cover monthly housing costs. WaPo

U.S. Economic Indicators

The ISM Manufacturing Index rose 1.8 points to 56.0 in August. The Employment Index rose 2.1 points to 46.4, while the New Orders Index rose 6.1 points to 67.6. ISM Report

Construction spending ticked up 0.1% in July to an annualized rate of $1.36 trillion. Private construction rose 0.6% while public construction declined 1.3%. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that while the president’s payroll-tax deferral plan — intended to temporarily boost workers’ take-home pay — goes into effect today, few large employers are expected to participate. While the plan would provide consumers with larger paychecks through the end of this year, withholding levels would be doubled early next year with employers on the hook for implementation and repayment costs. WSJ

U.S. News

The Financial Times reports that the commercial property financing industry is under severe stress as the coronavirus pandemic alters the way people work and travel. While the price of debt in the market for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) has improved off March lows, significant weakness remains as almost a quarter of all hotel loans bundled into CMBS and around 15% of retail loans are at least 30 days delinquent. FT

Nick Timiraos writes for the Wall Street Journal that despite the Fed’s announcement last week of a new policy framework around inflation and unemployment, the new framework may have only a modest impact on promoting the economic recovery. The Fed has indicated they will rely largely on asset purchases and forward guidance as their primary policy tools, but analysts question how effective these tools are likely to be given that long-term interest rates are already low. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The U.S. Census Bureau Advance Economic Indicators Report shows that the goods deficit expanded to $79.3 billion in July from $71.0 billion in June. Meanwhile, wholesale inventories edged down 0.1% and retail inventories rose 1.2%. Census Bureau Report

Real disposable personal income declined 0.1% in July, while real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 1.6%. The PCE price index rose 0.3% (up 1.0% Y/Y), and the core price index rose 0.3% (up 1.3% Y/Y). BEA Report

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose 1.6 points to 74.1 in the final August reading but is down 15.7 points from August of last year. The Index of Consumer Expectations rose 2.6 points to 68.5, while the Current Economic Conditions Index ticked up 0.1 point to 82.9. University of Michigan

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims fell 98,000 to 1,006,000 last week. The four-week moving average decreased 107,250 to 1,068,000. DOL Report

The second estimate of Q1 GDP indicates that the U.S. economy contracted at an annualized rate of -31.7%, little changed from the prior estimate of -32.9%. The slight upward revision reflects smaller declines in private inventories and consumer spending than previously estimated. BEA

The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index rose 5.9% in July (up 16% year-over-year). NAR reports that pent-up demand from pandemic lockdown measures earlier this year is driving a strong, V-shaped recovery in the housing market. NAR Report