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U.S. Economic Indicators

New orders of manufactured durable goods rose 0.5% in March after falling 0.9% (revised) in February. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.6% after decreasing 0.3% the month before. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

Bloomberg reports that a surge in global crop prices is adding to fears of food inflation, with wheat, corn, and soybean prices all experiencing multi-year highs. Adverse weather conditions across the Americas and Europe risk weighing on production at the same time that inventories are low and demand from China is strengthening. Bloomberg

U.S. Economic Indicators

New home sales rose 20.7% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1,021,000 and were up 66.8% above year-ago levels. The median sales price decreased to $330,800 and the inventory of new homes fell to 3.6 months at the current sales rate. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

Bloomberg reports that the U.S. economy may be in for a period of stronger productivity growth after decades-long stagnation. Companies are poised to further increase efficiency, employees are returning to work, and President Biden is pushing for policies to ramp up investment in productivity-enhancing infrastructure. Bloomberg

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims decreased 39,000 to 547,000. The four-week moving average decreased 27,750 to 651,000. DOL Report

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose from -1.20 in February to +1.71 in March. All four broad categories of indicators improved from February and contributed positively to the overall index, led by production and consumption. Chicago Fed Report

Existing home sales fell 3.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.0 million in March but were up 12.3% compared to a year ago. Home sales decreased on a month-on-month basis in all four major regions but saw double-digit year-on-year growth in all except the Midwest. NAR Report

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) rose 1.3% in March following a 0.1% decrease in February. All ten components contributed positively to the index, suggesting a broad-based increase in economic momentum, supported by vaccination campaigns, fiscal stimulus, and gradual lifting of restrictions on mobility. Conference Board Report

U.S. News

Bloomberg reports that international momentum is building for President Biden’s proposal of a global minimum corporate tax, with support recently signaled by a key official from the Netherlands – long considered a destination for companies looking to minimize taxes. The U.S. and other members of the OECD are hoping for a deal by this July to reduce tax competition between countries, though uncertainties around the exact nature of such a deal remain. Bloomberg

The Wall Street Journal reports that the number of Hispanic homebuyers – a consistent source of strength in the housing market during recent years – grew to nearly 9 million in 2020, the biggest annual increase in two decades. While Hispanic individuals comprise slightly less than a fifth of the country’s population, they accounted for more than half of all homeownership growth in the decade leading up to the pandemic and may account for as much as 70% of homeownership growth over the next two decades. WSJ

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that many economists expect the recovery of economy activity to outpace that of payrolls, potentially causing bottlenecks and pressure on wages and prices. Although job openings currently exceed pre-pandemic levels, employers may be reluctant to hire until consumer demand has recovered, while workers who dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic will take time to return. WSJ

The New York Times reports that the federal government is preparing to open two new relief programs targeted at small businesses in the live-event and restaurant industries, as the larger Paycheck Protection Program nears its end next month. Both programs offer recipients in the struggling industries grants of up to $10 million to replace lost sales, but funds are expected to run out quickly – the Restaurant Revitalization Fund, for example, may see $120 billion in applications for less than $30 billion in available funds. NYT