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U.S. Economic Indicators

The ISM Services Index rose 0.9 point to 57.8 in September, indicating continued growth in the services sectors at a faster rate than last month. The New Orders Index increased 4.7 points to 61.5, while the Employment Index rose 3.9 points to 51.8. ISM Report

U.S. News

According to the Washington Post, despite renewed hopes of reaching an agreement on a new round of coronavirus relief over the weekend, a deal between House Democrats and the Trump administration remains elusive. House Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin have agreed to another round of stimulus payments, but the two sides remain $600 billion apart and in disagreement on the level of tax credits for children and families, the amount of enhanced unemployment insurance, and state and local government aid. WaPo

The New York Times reports that six months into the crisis, business hopes of a short-lived labor market shock are beginning to wane as the number of permanent job losses increases with little sign that the virus is going away soon. Although the unemployment rate continues to decline, the Times report emphasizes that other indicators such as the number of marginally attached workers provide a more complete picture of a sluggish and slowing labor market recovery. NYT

U.S. Economic Indicators

The U.S. economy gained 661,000 jobs in September, slightly below expectations. The unemployment rate declined 0.5 percentage points to 7.9% while the labor force participation rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 61.4%. BLS Report

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose 6.3 points to 80.4 in the final September reading but is down 12.8 points from September of last year. The Index of Consumer Expectations rose 7.1 points to 75.6, while the Current Economic Conditions Index increased 4.9 points to 87.8. University of Michigan

New factory orders for manufactured goods rose 0.7% in August following a 6.5% (revised) increase in July. New orders excluding transportation were up 0.7%, while new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 1.9%. Census Bureau Report

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims decreased 36,000 to 837,000 last week. The four-week moving average fell 11,750 to 867,250. DOL Report

Real disposable personal income declined 3.5% in August, while real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.7%. The PCE price index rose 0.3% (up 1.4% Y/Y), and the core price index rose 0.3% (up 1.6% Y/Y). BEA Report

The ISM Manufacturing Index fell 0.6 point to 55.4 in September. The Employment Index rose 3.2 points to 49.6, while the New Orders Index fell 7.4 points to 60.2. ISM Report

Construction spending rose 1.4% in August to an annualized rate of $1.41 trillion. Private construction rose 1.9% while public construction ticked up 0.1%. Census Bureau Report

U.S. Economic Indicators

The third and final estimate of Q2 GDP indicates that the U.S. economy contracted at an annualized rate of -31.4% in the second quarter, little changed from the prior estimate of -31.7%. For the third estimate, an upward revision to consumer spending was offset by downward revisions to exports and nonresidential fixed investment. BEA Report

The ADP Employment Report shows that private-sector employment increased by 749,000 jobs in September, somewhat above expectations. The services sector gained 552,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector gained 196,000 jobs. ADP Report

The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index rose 8.8% to a record high in August (up 24.2% year-over-year). NAR reports that low mortgage rates have helped drive the historic rise in pending sales, though the increase may not necessarily translate into record high home sales as not all contracts lead to closings. NAR Report