Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 3.8 points to 104.0 in September as nine index components improved and one weakened. Expectations for future business conditions improved sharply while expectations for future credit conditions ticked down. NFIB Report

Consumer prices rose 0.2% in September (up 1.4% from a year ago). The “core” CPI, which excludes food and energy, also rose 0.2% and is up 1.7% from last year. BLS Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the International Energy Agency’s latest annual report finds that while overall capital spending on energy is projected to plunge 18% this year due to the pandemic, investment in renewable energy sources has held up much better than investment in fossil fuels. Renewables have benefited from government support and low financing costs as efforts intensify to meet international climate goals. WSJ

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that despite U.S. tariffs and the global economic downturn, Chinese exports to the U.S. have increased in recent months as American companies import more coronavirus-related products such as PPE and work-from-home equipment. Virus-related products were responsible for two-thirds of Chinese export growth in July and August, bolstered by China’s ability to more quickly bring manufacturing capacity back online relative to other pandemic-hit countries. WSJ

According to the New York Times, the rising popularity of curbside pickup is yet another example of how major U.S. retailers are adapting their business models to survive the pandemic in the age of e-commerce. Curbside pickup accommodates Americans’ preference for driving to stores while allowing traditional retailers to maintain their workforces by converting stores into mini fulfillment centers. NYT

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims decreased 9,000 to 840,000 last week. The four-week moving average fell 13,250 to 857,000. DOL Report

U.S. News

The Financial Times reports that OPEC’s latest annual outlook anticipates a much stronger oil recovery than most industry analysts, forecasting a swift recovery in oil demand over the next year and continued sector expansion until 2040. OPEC’s report acknowledges the high degree of uncertainty surrounding the pandemic’s trajectory in the near term, but assumes ongoing population growth and an expanding middle class in emerging markets will continue to bolster demand over the next couple of decades. FT

David Lynch reports for the Washington Post that the US economic recovery is rapidly losing momentum as stimulus talks stall in Washington, raising the chances of a more painful, drawn-out recession with a longer path back to growth. Economists warn that headwinds to recovery are mounting heading in to the fall and winter months, as more businesses shutter and cooler weather forces people indoors where virus transmission thrives. WaPo

U.S. News

The Financial Times reports that labor markets across the developed world are likely much weaker than official unemployment metrics suggest. The pandemic has contributed to high levels of ‘hidden unemployment’ by weighing on labor force participation, a trend that may not persist through the fall, however, as the return of children to school gives more parents the opportunity to actively seek work. FT

According to the Wall Street Journal, minutes from the latest Fed policy meeting – to be released later this afternoon – should provide some details on the central bank’s current economic outlook and the plan for implementing its new policy framework. Fed officials projected a somewhat stronger economic rebound and employment recovery at last month’s meeting compared to their projections in June, but the outlook may have relied considerably on now questionable expectations of additional federal stimulus spending. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The U.S. trade deficit increased from $63.4 billion (revised) in July to $67.1 billion in August. The goods deficit rose by $3.0 billion while the services surplus fell by $0.7 billion. Census Bureau Report

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (“JOLTS”) indicated that the number of job openings was little changed at 6.5 million in August. The number of hires was little changed at 5.9 million, while the quits rate was 2.0 percent. BLS Report

U.S. News

The Financial Times reports that the coronavirus pandemic has accelerated the shift among manufacturing companies to separate supply chains for Chinese markets and the rest of the world. Rising labor costs in China relative to other countries in Southeast Asia and Latin America started companies’ rethink of overdependence on China more than a decade ago, which has been reinforced by recent U.S.-China trade tensions and regional pandemic-related lockdowns. FT