Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

Privately-owned housing starts rose 1.9% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.42 million (up 11.1% year-over-year). Housing permits rose 5.2% to a 1.55 million annual pace (up 8.1% from last year). Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the share of U.S. households without a bank account declined to 5.4% in 2019 according to a recent FDIC report on access to financial services. Officials warn, however, that the share of unbanked households may rise due to the pandemic as access to banking services is strongly correlated with employment. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The NAHB Housing Market Index increased two points to 85 in October. NAHB reports that the housing market continues to be a bright spot for the economy as record-low interest rates and the reconceptualization of ‘home’ in the COVID era keep demand strong. NAHB Report

U.S. News

The Financial Times reports that Congressional Democrats have set a two-day deadline on stimulus negotiations if a new package is to be passed before the election. While the White House has maintained support for a larger stimulus package, it remains unclear whether the House and Senate can overcome disagreement on the size and scope of the bill. FT

According to the Wall Street Journal, economists warn that China’s rapid recovery is unlikely to provide as strong of a boost to the rest of the global economy as it did in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. China’s economic stimulus measures in response to the pandemic have been constrained by rising debt levels, and the recent acceleration of economic activity may wane as pent-up demand fades. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Retail sales rose 1.9% in September and were up 5.4% from a year ago. Core sales — which exclude autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services —  increased 1.4%. Census Bureau Report

Industrial production declined 0.6% in September – the first monthly decline since April – and is down 7.3% year-over-year. Capacity utilization fell 0.5 point to 71.5. Fed Report

Business inventories edged up 0.3% in August but were down 5.5% from August of last year. Manufacturers’ sales rose 0.3% in August but were down 5.3% compared to a year ago. Census Bureau Report

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose 0.8 point to 81.2 in the preliminary October reading but is down 14.3 points from October of last year. The Index of Consumer Expectations rose 3.2 points to 78.8, while the Current Economic Conditions Index fell 2.9 points to 84.9. University of Michigan

U.S. Economic Indicators

The headline Producer Price Index (“PPI”) for final demand rose 0.4% in September and is up 0.4% year-over-year. The core – which removes the volatile prices of food, energy, and trade services – also rose 0.4% and is up 0.7% from a year ago. BLS Report

U.S. News

According to the Financial Times, some of the largest U.S. banks have a more positive outlook on the U.S. economy after profits rebounded and loan loss provisions tumbled in the third quarter. While strong bank performance may hint at a the start of a broader economic recovery, bank leaders stress that the economic outlook remains contingent on positive developments with respect to virus control and federal stimulus measures. FT

The Wall Street Journal reports that the World Trade Organization ruled that the E.U. may impose tariffs on nearly $4 billion worth of U.S. goods as part of a long-running U.S.-E.U. dispute over aircraft subsidies. While the award amount is far less than the $7.5 billion worth of European goods the WTO authorized the U.S. to impose tariffs on last year, it is substantial enough to give both sides a strong incentive to reach a negotiated settlement. WSJ