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Oil.  Oil prices posted a rare rally today amid their six-month collapse, as the U.S. benchmark rose 76 cents, or 1.8%, to $47.01 a barrel.  In a sign that OPEC’s strategy to defend its market share may be working, the International Energy Agency (IEA) also reduced its forecast for the increase in non-OPEC oil supply this year by 350,000 barrels a day.  WSJ

Energy Policy.  Lobbyists have pressured Congress and the Obama administration for years to lift the decades-old ban on oil exports; however, now that a bill is finally being debated, industry officials are urging lawmakers to wait instead.  The issue is arising because the Keystone XL pipeline is also under debate in the Senate, and many oil companies would rather capitalize on this rare opportunity with Republican majorities in Congress, leaving the export ban for a later date.  WSJ

Climate Change.  The average global temperature in 2014 was the warmest recorded on a global temperature record dating back to 1880, scientists reported today.  Notably, the 2014 record was the first incidence of a new heat record without an El Niño weather pattern, suggesting that average global temperatures are likely to be much higher than this record the next time a strong El Niño occurs.  NY Times

Oil.  Ruchir Sharma, an emerging markets investment manager at Morgan Stanley, argues that a $50 barrel of oil is “normal” according to its inflation-adjusted 100-year trend. Sharma notes that commodity prices tend to move in “supercycles” where prices surge and then normalize along their long-term historical trend, and explains the current situation as a rebalancing of supply and demand after the latest oil-price surge when China emerged as an industrialized economy in the middle of the 1990s.  Bloomberg

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Oil.  OPEC issued its January monthly market report today, which both downgraded demand for its crude oil for 2015 and predicted slower oil-production growth in the United States.  The cartel’s economists say that demand for OPEC crude will be about 28.8 million barrels a day this year, 100,000 barrels a day less than they forecasted in December’s report.  NYT
 
Energy Policy.  The Wall Street Journal argues for the abolition of the U.S. federal tax on gasoline, a major source of revenue for the Highway Trust Fund (HTF).  The Journal asserts that the federal government’s role in the Fund should be reduced and states allowed to decide how to fund transportation, particularly given that three-quarters of highway spending is already supplied by state and local governments, states can build highways and interstates more cheaply, the HTF has been historically misallocated, and federal HTF spending has far outpaced the gas-tax revenues generated to support it.  WSJ
 
Energy Outlook.  Ed Crooks and Gregory Meyer examine the U.S. oil demand-response in light of the recent plunge in oil prices. The authors argue that while data from the last ten years indicates that long-term structural changes are working to reduce U.S. oil consumption, sustained low oil prices will increase the likelihood of higher demand moving forward.  FT

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Energy Policy.  Auto companies are pressuring U.S. regulators to change forthcoming standards requiring them to significantly improve the fuel economy of their vehicles by 2025.  While regulators aim to maintain fuel efficiency improvements despite recent volatility in oil prices, auto manufacturers are concerned that the current low price of gas will stifle consumer demand for higher fuel economy vehicles.  WSJ

Energy Policy.  White House officials announced plans to impose new regulations that will reduce the oil and gas industry’s methane emissions to 65% of 2012 levels by 2025.  The oil and gas industry has pushed back against the proposed regulations, arguing that they are “redundant, costly and unnecessary” amid existing industry efforts.  NY Times

Energy Outlook.  George Perry of the Brookings Institute discusses the current oil-market slump, including underlying factors and the likely path forward.  He argues that the global oil market will remain chaotic for “some time” in light of OPEC’s refusal to support the world price by cutting production — and notes that cuts in U.S. shale oil production are likely to contribute disproportionately to the eventual reduction in global supply.  Brookings

Oil.  Two of the largest oil-producing companies have announced significant cost-cutting plans for 2015 after a brutal recent slide in crude prices.  These plans include the postponement or abandonment of major billion-dollar projects such as construction of one of the world’s largest petrochemical plants.  FT

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Energy Outlook. The Energy Information Agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts slower growth in domestic oil production in 2016, reflecting the long-term impact of weak oil prices.  The agency projects Brent crude oil prices to remain weak this year at an average of $58 per barrel, but raised its expectations for 2015 global demand growth.  EIA

Energy Policy.  The Keystone XL Senate floor debate in coming weeks will likely serve as a “showcase”  for energy and environmental issues including climate change science, the role humans play in the course of climate change, and the 42-year-old ban on crude oil exports. Republicans and Democrats remain split on most issues, while there is some bipartisan agreement on measures such as energy efficiency in buildings.  NY Times

Energy Outlook.  As international crude oil prices approach fresh 6-year lows, China — the world’s largest oil importer — imported a record level of crude oil in December in attempts to fill its strategic and commercial reserves. Amrita Sen, a chief oil analyst at Energy Apsects, warned that China’s oil product demand will likely slow as Chinese consumption becomes more efficient and less oil intensive and the pace of new refinery production slows.  FT

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Oil.  Four critical U.S. crude oil refineries — accounting for more than one-fifth of the total refining capacity of the East Coast and Midwest regions — were closed by fire and cold weather over the weekend. Industry analysts predict that these refinery incidents may provide a “boost” to the slumping oil products market, although the overall impact will likely be muted due to growing inventories.  Reuters

Nuclear.  Nick Butler of the Financial Times notes that 2015 is likely to be a “critical year” for the nuclear industry, as Japan begins phasing-in its nuclear reactors and countries around the world decide whether or not to commit to new nuclear plants.  Many forthcoming projects are at risk of being delayed or canceled due to financing concerns and a lack of independent appraisals of new technologies.  FT

Energy Policy.  Brookings’ Planet Policy blog reviews a recent paper which estimates the employment effects of a nitrogen oxide cap-and-trade program for electric utilities and large manufacturers. The author, Mark Curtis, found that the cap-and-trade program did lead to a substantial reduction in emissions, but that employment in the manufacturing sector dropped by 1.3 percent as a result of the program.  Brookings