Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

New orders of manufactured durable goods rose 1.3% in October after increasing 2.1% (revised) in September. Excluding transportation, new orders rose 1.3% last month after rising 1.5% the month before. Census Bureau Report

The U.S. Census Bureau Advance Economic Indicators Report shows that the goods deficit expanded to $80.3 billion in October from $79.4 billion in September. Meanwhile, wholesale inventories rose 0.9% and retail inventories rose 0.8%. Census Bureau Report

Real disposable personal income decreased 0.8% in October, while real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.5%. Both the PCE price index (up 1.2% Y/Y) and the core price index (up 1.4% Y/Y) were unchanged. BEA Report

New home sales declined 0.3% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 999,000 but were up 41.5% above year-ago levels. The median sales price edged down to $330,600 and the inventory of new homes was unchanged at 3.3 months at the current sales rate. Census Bureau Report

Initial jobless claims rose 30,000 to 778,000 last week. The four-week moving average increased 5,000 to 748,500. DOL Report

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell from 101.4 (revised) in October to 96.1 in November. Consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions and near-term expectations for jobs, business conditions, and financial prospects declined. Conference Board Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that former Fed chair Janet Yellen, chosen by President-elect Joe Biden to be the next Treasury Secretary, will face the challenge of building broad consensus on economic policy as the economic recovery loses momentum and additional stimulus from Congress remains uncertain. Yellen has said that pulling back on spending too abruptly could lead to a sluggish recovery like the one that followed the financial crisis, and has argued that risks associated with borrowing to support the recovery remain low so long as interest rates and inflation stay muted. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose from +0.32 in September to +0.83 in October. Three of the four broad categories of indicators – production, employment, and sales, orders, & inventories – contributed positively to the overall index, while the consumption category contributed negatively. Chicago Fed Report

U.S. News

According to the Financial Times, the public sector layoffs resulting from the dramatic fall in state and local tax receipts have particularly impacted African-American workers who make up a disproportionate share of the public sector workforce. Nearly 1.4 million state and local government workers have lost their jobs since February, a number that is likely to grow without additional federal aid. FT

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims rose 31,000 to 742,000 last week. The four-week moving average decreased 13,750 to 742,000. DOL Report

Existing home sales rose 4.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.85 million in October and were up 26.6% compared to a year ago. Home sales increased in all four major regions on both a month-on-month and year-over-year basis with the Midwest posting the strongest sales growth. NAR Report

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) rose 0.7% in October following a 0.7% increase in September. Deceleration of the index in recent months suggests growth will moderate significantly in the finals months of 2020. Conference Board Report

U.S. Economic Indicators

Privately-owned housing starts increased 4.9% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.53 million (up 14.2% year-over-year). Housing permits were unchanged at a 1.55 million annual pace (up 2.8% from last year). Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, inflation expectations remain muted despite investor optimism that COVID-19 vaccines could stimulate a faster-than-expected economic rebound. While massive fiscal stimulus raised concerns of runaway inflation, these fears have not materialized as the disinflationary effects of the pandemic continue to outweigh inflationary pressures. WSJ