Energy and Environment News

Energy and Environment News

September 9, 2015

Top Stories

Oil Outlook.  According to the latest outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. oil production fell to a near one-year low and is likely to continue declining through 2016 as long as crude oil prices remain depressed.  With OPEC producing above its target of 30 million barrels a day, investors are urging U.S. producers to keep cutting production in order to reduce oversupply in the market. EIA, WSJ

Energy Policy.  Under an agreement between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations submitted questions to Tehran in an effort to probe into various ambiguities associated with its past nuclear work.  Many Western officials believe that Iran previously worked to gather information on how to develop nuclear weapons — a point of contention among critics of the final nuclear deal reached in July, who contend that the accord failed to require Iran to fully account for its past actions. WSJ

Energy Policy.  California’s centerpiece legislation that requires the state to reduce its petroleum use by 50 percent by 2030 has sparked a fierce battle in the state, pitting oil industry representatives against environmentalists, and creating factions within the Democratic party.  The bill is currently faltering in the California Assembly due to opposition among moderate Democrats from economically suffering districts. NY Times

Coal.    Pilita Clark of the Financial Times discusses the viability of carbon capture as a mechanism to curb emissions of carbon dioxide from coal plants around the world, noting that many forward-looking climate models assume that the technology will be widespread in future years.  Clark notes that while the concept appears simple and compelling in theory, the technology has proven much more expensive and less efficient than originally expected.  FT

Energy and Environment News

Energy and Environment News

September 8, 2015

Top Stories

Oil.  Ed Crooks of the Financial Times writes that the U.S. shale industry flourished due to several key conditions beyond favorable geology. He cites the U.S. “dynamic entrepreneurial business culture” as paramount to the success of the shale revolution, along with a number of other factors that provided investment incentives and research support for the development of unconventional resources — including mineral rights, a deep base of geological knowledge, and a network of highly skilled geologists and engineers. FT

Oil Outlook.  The Wall Street Journal reports that although the price of crude soared last month, little has fundamentally changed for the short-term oil price outlook.  The world is still oversupplied with oil, despite cuts in U.S. output, and demand growth will likely remain weak amid economic slowdown in China, which accounts for roughly one-tenth of total global oil consumption.  WSJ

Energy Outlook.  At a conference in Boston this week, rail executives will address investor concerns as the industry continues to lose momentum amid falling commodity prices largely attributable to slowing Chinese consumption.  In the face of falling profits for coal, oil, and metal, companies are likely to highlight recent efforts to scale back networks to accommodate lower volumes, as well as cost-cutting measures such as furloughing employees and storing locomotives.  WSJ

Oil.  John Kemp of Reuters notes that the cyclical supply-demand imbalance is likely much tighter than U.S. inventory data suggests, as the industry shifted from a “lean” inventories strategy in 1985 through 2004 toward a tendency of higher physical stockholding from 2005 onward, largely due to financial incentives that emerged with futures trading.  Kemp argues that oil market observers need to update their assumptions about “normal” stock levels to account for this fundamental shift in stockholding behavior, as well as the drastic rise in production volumes that took hold in 2009.   Reuters

Energy Policy.  Lawmakers will begin debating the Iran nuclear accord this week — a duel which will most likely result in a narrow and partisan victory for President Obama, and set the tone for future showdowns this fall over government spending.   While the GOP unanimously opposes the deal, the Democratic party is divided due to pressure from dueling interest groups, donors, and vocal constituents — particularly in the Jewish community.  NY Times

Energy and Environment News

Energy and Environment News

September 3, 2015

Top Stories

Climate Change.  Timmons Roberts of Brookings asserts that President Obama is “walking a razor’s edge” following his visit to Alaska, after delivering two delicately crafted messages that are coherent by themselves but contradictory together.  While the President proclaimed that Alaskan resources are a vital part of our energy future, he also asserted that climate change requires immediate and faster action; Roberts notes that this is reflective of the “cognitive dissonance” of this administration on climate change.  Brookings

Oil.  Payment-card companies and gas-station operators are combatting a wave of fuel-related theft and fraud at the pump.  Gas stations are already particularly susceptible to fraud because pumps are unattended, making it easy for fraudsters to rig terminals with “skimming devices” used for making counterfeit payment cards; analysts suspect that the delay from gas stations to install equipment compatible with new chip-based, fraud-resistant cards will only exacerbate the problem.  WSJ

Biofuels.  Two ethanol plants in Wyoming and Virginia closed this week, highlighting the growing challenges faced by producers in the ethanol industry amid cheap gas prices and lower demand for alternative fuels.  Specifically, gasoline has become cheaper than ethanol in some parts of the country, and there is very little demand for the fuel beyond the government mandate that requires every gallon of gasoline to contain 10 percent ethanol.  Reuters

Oil.  Nick Butler of the Financial Times discusses various supply- and demand-side drivers of the oil market “cycle” in an attempt to predict the duration of the oil price slump.  He notes that increased production and oversupply in the market will likely persist for at least two years, and that demand will likely increase only modestly through 2017; taken together, Butler speculates that prices will remain below $50 per barrel for four to six years, and expects that the cycle will begin to “turn” only when the postponement of new projects begins to impact total supply.  FT

Energy and Environment News

Energy and Environment News

September 2, 2015

Top Stories

Energy Policy.  President Obama secured enough support in Congress today to ensure that he can overcome bipartisan opposition to implement the landmark nuclear accord with Iran.   Mr. Obama is expected to veto any resolution Congress may pass next month that disapproves of the deal; with support from 34 Senate Democrats — the minimum number needed — there will not be enough votes to override that veto, meaning the foreign policy capstone of the president’s second term will likely stand.  WSJ

Oil Outlook.  According to a new analysis from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the price of domestic crude will remain close to $6 a barrel beneath Brent crude, the international marker, regardless of whether the 40-year-old ban on U.S. exports is lifted. The government report is contrary to warnings from U.S. drillers that the ban artificially depresses the price of crude and will create a domestic glut.  FT

Natural Gas.  New “supersize” horizontal-drilling and fracking techniques have increased the volume of natural gas that can be extracted from the ground, raising the likelihood that natural gas prices will remain low for many decades to come.  The technique is being applied in the Haynesville wells in Louisiana — the second-largest gas deposit in the United States and a basin that has previously been very difficult to drill profitably. WSJ

Energy Policy.  Adele Morris and Evan Weber of the Brookings Institute argue that states should implement a tax on carbon in order to meet the state-specific emissions limits that are outlined in the Clean Power Plan.  The authors assert that the carbon tax is likely the most easily administrable and cost-effective compliance approach for many states, and will help to keep ratepayer dollars within respective states to ensure that low-income households and others are protected from energy cost increases.  Brookings

Energy and Environment News

Energy and Environment News

September 1, 2015

Top Stories

Climate Change.  Speaking in Alaska yesterday, President Obama issued a global call for urgent action to address climate change and declared that the United States was partly to blame for what he called the “defining challenge of the century.”  The NY Times describes Mr. Obama’s remarks as  “bordering on apocalyptic,” as he stated multiple times that “we’re not acting fast enough” and warned that the effects of global warming would soon engulf the world unless more was done to reduce emissions.  NY Times

Oil.  Following strong gains over the last three trading sessions, crude-oil futures fell today as market concerns about China’s economy resurfaced.  China is the second-largest global consumer of oil; however, the Asian powerhouse is now slowing as it transitions from an investment-led economy to one that is consumer-driven, as exhibited by August’s multi-year lows in both official and private measures of Chinese manufacturing activity.  WSJ

Wind.  The U.S. clean energy sector is suffering from a lack of wind; the electricity generated by U.S. wind farms fell 6 percent in the first half of the year despite an expansion in national wind generating capacity of 9 percent.  The Financial Times attributes this to some of the softest air currents in 40 years, and notes that the situation could intensify into the first quarter of 2016 as the El Niño weather phenomenon holds back wind speeds around much of the U.S.  FT

Oil.  U.S. oil rig efficiency has improved by at least 40% on a per-rig basis since the crude price downturn began, incentivizing many drillers to continue production despite severely reduced profit margins.  Many industry stakeholders have expressed concern that the recent introduction of more sophisticated and versatile rigs will “cannibalize” demand for rig technologies over the long term, as efficiency improvements may translate into fewer future sales when oil prices eventually begin to rise.  Bloomberg

Coal.  The Editors at Bloomberg View argue that coal is “in decline” as a profitable energy source and, as such, regulators should not acquiesce to requests from energy companies to delay this inevitability by subsidizing coal-powered energy. The editors cite multiple scenarios in which an energy company has asked regulators to intervene to keep coal profitable — which would ultimately cost rate payers billions of additional dollars for electricity. Bloomberg View