Energy and Environment News

Energy and Environment News

December 3, 2015

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Oil Outlook.  Saudi Arabia allegedly “floated” an idea to establish a global deal that would balance oil markets and lift prices in advance of OPEC’s policy meeting this Friday, but fellow producers Russia and Iran rejected calls to cut output.  Cooperation between OPEC and non-OPEC producers has not occurred since the industry came together 15 years ago to help the market recover after the 1998 financial crisis; Russia and Iran appear unlikely to change position.  Reuters

Oil and Gas.  Loan prices for energy companies seeking Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection continue to fall, indicating that investors are not optimistic about companies’ prospects after exiting bankruptcy protection.   While such investments are likely to recover and become profitable over the long run,  the collapse in energy prices and unrelenting global supply glut suggest that the outlook will remain dim for the near term.   WSJ

Climate Change.   The New York Times reviews the United Nations’ process for adopting a legal international agreement on climate change over the next two weeks, noting that the final agreement must have the unanimous consent of all 190 parties in order to have legal force.  Negotiators have developed a shortlist of potential dissenters to the agreement including Malaysia, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela, which all have legitimate economic reasons to object to a deal designed to turn the economy away from the fossil fuels that drive their economies.  NY Times

Coal.  John Schwartz of the New York Times writes that the coal industry is under considerable financial pressure and may be in long-term decline, as several high-profile coal companies file for bankruptcy, investors increasingly abandon coal stocks,  lower-carbon alternatives like natural gas, wind, and solar power become more cost competitive, and well-funded activists campaign against new coal plants.  However, Schwartz notes that coal consumption is set to rise in much of the developing world, and warns that the financial health of the industry should be considered separately from the role of coal in the world economy.  NY Times

Energy and Environment News

Energy and Environment News

December 2, 2015

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Nuclear.  The United Nations atomic agency believes that Iran was working in a “coordinated” manner on nuclear weapons intelligence through at least 2003, though there is no credible evidence of nuclear weapon-related activity after 2009.   While these findings are unlikely to stop Iran from winning sanctions relief under the accord reached last summer,  they are likely to amplify critics’ concerns about Tehran’s future nuclear abilities and intentions.  WSJ

Climate Change.   Global leaders at the U.N. climate change conference have pledged billions of dollars to help develop and finance “green” technologies that would advance renewable energy sources as competitive alternatives to fossil fuels, thereby curbing emissions in both developed and developing countries.  However, industry analysts warn that many developing countries are not ready to receive such technology transfers, as they require fundamental improvements to their institutions, regulations, and workforce as a prerequisite.  Reuters

Energy Policy.  New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman has called for federal transportation regulators to impose new safety rules governing the combustibility of oil transported by rail, requiring that oil companies remove volatile gases before the fuel is loaded onto trains.   Energy companies and industry groups have countered that the volatile gases are not the best indicator of whether a train’s cargo is at risk of exploding,  asserting that regulators should instead focus on ways to keep train accidents from happening in the first place.  WSJ

Oil Outlook.   Spencer Jakab of the Wall Street Journal writes that the energy industry is beginning to worry about the exhaustion of crude oil storage, which could cause another sharp decline in oil prices.   Jakab argues that while inventories are at record-high levels,  other indicators — such as the absence of “floating storage” tankers and relatively sound market for oil futures — suggest that the oil market is not in danger of real storage distress over the near term.  WSJ

Energy and Environment News

Energy and Environment News

December 1, 2015

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Energy Policy.  The Environmental Protection Agency reduced the annual ethanol-blending requirements established under the Renewable Fuel Standard for 2016 and also (retroactively) for 2014 and 2015.  The agency based its decision on market changes and other various constraints that have made the standard challenging to achieve over the past decade, such as the domestic oil-production boom, higher fuel-economy standards, and less gasoline demand than estimated under prior law.  WSJ

Climate Change. The New York Times reports that a collection of businesses, environmental activists, and economists have joined to urge negotiators at the U.N. climate-change summit in Paris to consider potential carbon pricing policies as a tool to curb emissions growth over the coming decade.  The unlikely alliance demonstrates how some business interests — including those in the oil and gas sector — view climate policies as an opportunity moving forward, particularly if programs open up new markets around the world to displace coal.  WSJ

Energy Policy.  Today the House approved two resolutions to block the EPA’s Clean Power Plan, which were already passed in the Senate but do not have the two-thirds majority required to override an almost-guaranteed veto from President Obama.  Nevertheless, the measures undercut the President’s support of a global climate resolution, amplifying concerns among global leaders about the ability of the United States to fulfill its commitments through a change of administration. NY Times

Energy Outlook.  The Financial Times discusses key players’ views on the commodity “supercycle” —  specifically whether it has entered a recovery phase, or merely shifted to a “new normal” of weak markets and years of oversupply.   While many commodity companies argue that demand fundamentals are sound for a recovery but prices will have to remain “lower for longer” to balance the market,  investors have become disillusioned with the market, suggesting it may be more of a structural shift.  FT

Energy and Environment News

Energy and Environment News

November 30, 2015

Top Stories

Climate Change.  World leaders are gathering in Paris today to commence a two-week summit focused on forging an international agreement to cut greenhouse-gas emissions.    In an effort to build momentum around the negotiations,  President Barack Obama and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates intend to launch a multi-billion dollar initiative to accelerate the pace of progress on new technologies that could curtail emissions;  the initiative will require signatory countries to double their investments in clean-energy research and development over the next five years.  WSJ

Solar.   The investment tax credit (ITC) — a key subsidy that has promoted growth in the U.S. solar power industry — is set to be drastically reduced for businesses and expire for individuals in December 2016 unless Congress acts to renew the credit.   While most companies in the solar sector are campaigning for Congress to renew the ITC,  other solar companies have urged Congress to allow the credit to fall, on grounds that the industry has matured and no longer needs the government support.  FT

Energy Policy.  Today China announced plans to introduce more competition into its power sector in an effort to lower electricity prices for Chinese factories.  The plan calls for an expansion of pilot schemes that are aimed at streamlining power transmission costs to new regions, along with more direct pricing negotiations between power companies and big electricity consumers; in effect, the plan also introduces new pricing tariffs that will give the government greater control over how Chinese grid companies earn money through the distribution network.  WSJ

Climate Change.  According to a recent New York Times/CBS News poll,  roughly two-thirds (63%) of Americans — including a slim majority of Republicans — support the Unites States joining a binding international agreement to curb the growth of greenhouse gas emissions.   Despite this consensus, Americans are starkly divided over domestic climate policy measures, which could make it difficult for the executive branch to meet the obligations of any global accord.  NY Times

Energy Outlook.  Michael Levi of the Financial Times writes that previous analyses on “fiscal break-even” oil prices — or the prices required to balance the budgets of many oil-exporting countries — have proved relatively shaky and unreliable in the oil price slump.  Levi argues that while these break-even prices are typically reported with great precision, the methodologies used to calculate them rely on assumptions prone to considerable uncertainty and variability.  FT

Energy and Environment News

Energy and Environment News

November 24, 2015

Top Stories

Climate Change.   The U.S. Energy Information Administration reports that U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions were up 1% in 2014, due largely to weather- and economy-driven increases in energy use in buildings and transportation.   While 2014 marked the second year of energy-related emissions increases, emissions levels were still down roughly 10% from their 2005 level.  EIA

Energy Policy.  State attorneys-general from West Virginia and Texas have announced that they are sending a letter to the governments of China, India, and other key participants at the upcoming Paris climate talks to assert that President Obama’s Clean Power Plan is unlawful and unlikely to survive legal challenges.  The letter demonstrates the difficulty U.S. negotiators are likely to face at the upcoming conference: Republicans at home vehemently oppose its agenda, and control majorities among both Congress and state governments.  FT

Energy Policy.  The Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, a pan-European energy-market watch dog, is reportedly examining 45 potential cases of abuse in Europe’s natural gas and electricity market.   Cases include issues ranging from potential market manipulation and publishing of inside information to alleged insider-trading cases, and are largely based on data that the group collects independently from national regulators.  WSJ

Energy Outlook.  Nick Butler of the Financial Times discusses the energy-market implications of Russia’s recent pivot in the international community with respect to the rise of the Islamist militant group Isis.  Butler predicts that the new geopolitical developments will impact the energy market in a few notable ways: (1) Russia will retain its share of the European gas market, (2) the “European Energy Union” proposals will be moderated in favor of Russia, (3) investment flows between Europe and Russia will likely be renewed as sanctions are relaxed, and (4) more strategic alliances are likely to form.  FT