Energy and Environment News

Energy and Environment News

December 28, 2015

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Energy Outlook.  Eight U.S. energy producers have made additional cuts to their already-tight 2016 budgets, suggesting that energy companies expect oil and gas prices to remain subdued throughout the year ahead.  Energy producers are also taking substantial impairments on their assets to adjust for the eroded value of their drilling properties, another sign that companies expect energy prices to stay low.  WSJ

Energy Policy.  Saudi Arabia unveiled plans to cut its government expenditures for the first time in a decade and sharply increase domestic fuel prices as an attempt to cope with the crude oil price slump.  The Saudi Arabian government — which receives about 90% of its fiscal revenue from oil exports — posted a budget deficit of $98 billion in 2015 (15% of its GDP).   Bloomberg

Energy Outlook.  Justin Lahart of the Wall Street Journal notes that 2016 may see a considerable uptick in domestic energy demand, as Americans are likely to begin spending — rather than saving — the continued windfall from low prices.  Lahart notes that because prices have been relatively “low” now for more than a year, Americans will probably no longer think of energy savings as a temporary relief, and adjust spending patterns accordingly.  WSJ

Energy and Environment News

Energy and Environment News

December 18, 2015

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Oil Outlook.  In its closely watched World Oil Outlook, OPEC forecasts that oil prices will remain below $100 a barrel for the long term but that demand will be higher than previously estimated over the same period.   The report’s price assumptions mark a sharp downgrade from last year, but still assume that benchmark crude prices will rebound to $70 a barrel over the next five years.  WSJ

Energy Outlook.  Despite rising default risk among U.S. energy producers, credit strategists are skeptical that default rates will rise by much in 2016 as most energy companies have been able to cut costs to avoid operating under negative cash flows.  The years following 2016 are likely to be slightly more troublesome, however,  as the number of expiring debts held by U.S. energy and mining companies is set to jump considerably in 2017, 2018, and 2019.  Bloomberg

Oil.  China exported 49% more diesel in the first 10 months of 2015 (compared with the same period of 2014) as domestic demand failed to keep up with ample supply from refineries.  The oversupply of diesel has weighed down Asian prices by more than 30% this year, leading many analysts to worry that the diesel market will mirror the market for crude oil if supply growth continues to outstrip demand.  WSJ

Climate Change.  Timmons Roberts of the Brookings Institute discusses an analysis of the U.S. news coverage surrounding the Paris climate talks, noting that much of the coverage was not very instructive and that many of the key issues debated in the negotiations were scarcely mentioned.  Roberts argues that the U.S. print media largely failed to inform citizens about the tough issues at the core of the negotiations, wasting an opportunity to educate people about what was really accomplished in Paris and what matters in relation to climate change policies moving forward.  NY Times

Energy and Environment News

Energy and Environment News

December 16, 2015

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Energy Policy.   Lawmakers appear to be moving forward on a spending bill that includes a provision to lift the nation’s decades-old ban on oil exports.   While lifting the ban is widely seen as a victory for oil producers,  the legislation also includes protections against future high gas prices for refiners — by allowing them to deduct most of the transportation costs associated with their products — and for consumers — by allowing the President to restrict oil exports for up to one year under various conditions such as a supply shortage.  WSJ

Energy Outlook.  Despite the steady drop in energy prices through the second half of 2015,  U.S. banks are continuing to be lenient with energy borrowers.    While many energy executives and speculators predicted that banks would significantly tighten credit lines during the biannual determination process this fall,  major banks remain hesitant to take harsh steps out of fear that a “chain reaction” could cause energy borrowers to fail, which would leave banks owning the assets.  WSJ

Energy Policy.  China has suspended fuel price adjustments in an effort to help curb domestic growth in petroleum consumption and improve air quality by cutting pollution.   The action will effectively keep domestic fuel rates stable despite continued declines in global oil prices, and is expected to temporarily widen refinery margins by $2 to $3 per barrel as prices continue to fall.  Bloomberg

Energy and Environment News

Energy and Environment News

December 15, 2015

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Energy Policy.  As part of its energy overhaul efforts, Mexico is preparing to take bids from foreign and private oil companies for 25 onshore areas of mature oil and gas fields where new investment is needed.  Analysts largely expect interest in the fields to be strong despite the low oil price environment, as local private oil producers are anxious for the opportunity to compete with the former state-owned monopoly for future production rights.  WSJ

Climate Change.  The New York Times reports that there has been a marked shift among environmentalists away from “protest” initiatives and toward movements that “change the narrative” and seek to find new solutions.   While nearly all environmentalists share the belief that the landmark climate agreement reached last weekend did not go far enough, the “center of action” is beginning to move toward efforts to reframe the climate change narrative,  making it more about finding a solution through real-world applications. NY Times

Energy Policy.  Debate surrounding the oil export ban has proved a sticking point in Congress’s attempts to move forward with spending and tax bills before the year comes to a close.  Democrat leaders have refused to go forward with a repeal of the decades-old ban unless policies that aim to reduce carbon emissions and encourage the use of renewable energy are also included.  WSJ

Energy Outlook.  Henning Gloystein of Reuters writes that a number of emerging factors are suggesting a sooner-than-expected recovery in oil prices.   These include higher car sales, rising security concerns, and political and financial risks impacting both oil and shale producers — leading some analysts to predict a turn-around by the end of 2016.   Reuters

Energy and Environment News

Energy and Environment News

December 14, 2015

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Oil.  Crude oil prices fell to fresh seven-year lows today, nearing levels last hit during the financial crisis.  While the fall is largely due to investors’ expectations of persisting oversupply, expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this week have placed additional downward pressure on prices, as an interest rate rise will further stress US shale drillers struggling to earn the cash flow needed to finance existing debts.  FT

Climate Change.   Representatives of 195 nations reached a landmark accord on Saturday that will commit nearly every country to lower greenhouse gas emissions in the years to come.  While the accord is not legally binding and is notably less ambitious than many advocates had hoped, analysts and experts note that the agreement signals to businesses and investors alike that the world is committed to a low-carbon future, and is hoped to trigger a fundamental shift away from investment in fossil fuel energy sources and toward zero-carbon sources such as wind, solar, and nuclear power.  NY Times

Energy Policy.   Jeff Sommer of the New York Times writes that the low and declining price of gasoline is likely to reverse the beneficial decline in petroleum use over the past few years, as exemplified by the reversal in fuel economy gains since 2014.  Sommer argues that a policy which imposes a tax on carbon emissions or raises the tax on gasoline would help to mitigate against this reversal, and, while unpopular, would also be more palatable in the low gasoline price environment.  NY Times