Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) rose 0.6% in November following a 0.8% increase in October. The LEI has continued improving though at a slower pace, with consumers’ worsening outlook underscoring downside risks to growth from continued spread of COVID-19. Conference Board Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that a worsening public health situation early in Q1 2021 could give way to a rapid economic turnaround heading into spring. Measures of economic activity including retail sales are already showing signs of weakness from the current virus surge and may weaken further as transmission rises through the winter, but the onset of warmer weather, improved testing regimens, and rising vaccine rates by March are reasons for optimism. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims rose 23,000 to 885,000 last week. The four-week moving average increased 34,250 to 812,500. DOL Report

Privately-owned housing starts increased 1.2% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.55 million (up 12.8% year-over-year). Housing permits rose 6.2% to a 1.64 million annual pace (up 8.5% from last year). Census Bureau Report

U.S. Economic Indicators

Retail sales fell 1.1% in November but were up 4.1% from last year. Core sales — which exclude autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services —  decreased 0.5% from the prior month. Census Bureau Report

The NAHB Housing Market Index fell four points to 86 in December, the first monthly decline since April. NAHB reports that housing demand is still strong heading into 2021, though affordability challenges will persist as construction costs rise and inventories stay low. NAHB Report

Business inventories increased 0.7% in October but were down 3.9% from October of last year. Manufacturers’ sales rose 1.0% but were down 2.9% compared to a year ago. Census Bureau Report

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity expanded slightly in December as the headline index fell 1.4 points to 4.9. The new orders index was little changed at 3.4, the shipments index rose 5.8 points to 12.1, and the index for number of employees increased 4.8 points to 14.2. NY Fed Report

Industrial production increased 0.4% in November but is down 5.5% year-over-year. Capacity utilization rose 0.3 point to 73.0. Fed Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, small banks have performed surprisingly well during the pandemic-induced recession, benefitting from the large share of government stimulus that has ended up at community banks and boosted deposits and loans. While the nationwide surge in COVID-19 cases and expiration of many federal aid programs poses risks to the entire banking sector, both large and small banks have historically high capital levels to help them absorb potential loan losses. WSJ

Bloomberg reports that a bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers is expected to unveil a $908 billion pandemic relief plan Monday afternoon. The two-part proposal is an attempt to allow less controversial aspects of the plan – such as small business relief and unemployment benefits – to move forward while giving lawmakers more time to hash out the details of liability protections for employers and aid for state and local governments. Bloomberg