Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

The ADP Employment Report shows that private-sector employment unexpectedly decreased by 123,000 jobs in December. The services sector lost 105,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector lost 18,000 jobs. ADP Report

New factory orders for manufactured goods rose 1.0% in November following a 1.3% (revised) increase in October. New orders excluding transportation were up 0.8%, while new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 0.5%. Census Bureau Report

U.S. Economic Indicators

The ISM Manufacturing Index rose 3.2 points to 60.7 in December. The Employment Index rose 3.1 points to 51.5, while the New Orders Index rose 2.8 points to 67.9. ISM Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the World Bank is warning of a “lost decade” for global growth as the pandemic exacerbates the growth slowdown that began even before the pandemic struck. The bank lowered its 10-year global growth projection to just 1.9%, down from a pre-pandemic estimate of 2.1%, citing lower trade and investment activity as well as labor productivity losses from pandemic-related disruptions to education. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims fell 89,000 to 803,000 last week. The four-week moving average increased 1,750 to 818,250. DOL Report

Real disposable personal income decreased 1.3% in November, while real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased 0.4%. Both the PCE price index (up 1.1% Y/Y) and the core price index (up 1.4% Y/Y) were unchanged. BEA Report

New orders of manufactured durable goods rose 0.9% in November after increasing 1.8% (revised) in October. Excluding transportation, new orders rose 0.4% last month after rising 1.9% the month before. Census Bureau Report

New home sales declined 11.0% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 841,000 but were up 20.8% above year-ago levels. The median sales price edged down to $335,300 and the inventory of new homes ticked up to 4.1 months at the current sales rate. Census Bureau Report

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose 3.8 points to 80.7 in the final December reading but is down 18.6 points from December of last year. The Index of Consumer Expectations rose 4.1 points to 74.6, while the Current Economic Conditions Index rose 3.0 points to 90.0. University of Michigan

U.S. Economic Indicators

The third and final estimate of Q3 GDP indicates that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 33.4% in the third quarter, up slightly from the prior estimate of 33.1%. For the third estimate, upward revisions to consumer spending and business investment were partly offset by a downward revision to exports. BEA Report

Existing home sales fell 2.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.7 million in November but were up 25.8% compared to a year ago. Home sales were either flat or declined in all four major regions compared to the prior month but were up significantly on a year-on-year basis. NAR Report

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined from 92.9 (revised) in November to 88.6 in December. Consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions decreased sharply while near-term expectations for jobs and business conditions improved. Conference Board Report

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index declined from +1.01 in October to +0.27 in November, indicating positive but slower growth. Three of the four broad categories of indicators – production, employment, and sales, orders, & inventories – contributed positively to the overall index, while the consumption category contributed negatively. Chicago Fed Report

U.S. News

Jeff Stein and Mike DeBonis report for the Washington Post that after months of gridlock, Senate leadership finally announced a $900 billion bipartisan relief package that is expected to be approved quickly by Congress. Among other provisions, the new package includes $600 direct stimulus checks, $300 weekly enhanced unemployment benefits, and $275 billion for a new round of Paycheck Protection Program funding. WaPo