Publications

Eric Morath of the Wall Street Journal writes that Americans currently are less likely to be laid off than at any point in the past half-century.  Morath argues that while this is largely due to a healthy labor market, there are also underlying structural factors that have contributed, such as higher long-term unemployment and an aging labor force. WSJ
 
The Wall Street Journal reports that although Congressional Republicans plan to spend the August recess establishing a tax reform plan, they face numerous hurdles in the coming months. GOP lawmakers have to formulate a federal budget for the coming fiscal year, address the debt ceiling, and attempt to pass healthcare reform before rewriting the tax code. WSJ
 
According to the Wall Street Journal, charitable organizations could lose billions of dollars in donations if the GOP effort at tax reform doubles the “standard deduction” and prevents state and local tax deductions from federal taxable income.  Charities do not want to appear opposed to tax cuts for their donors, and therefore will likely advocate for a “universal” deduction for charitable contributions even if taxpayers do not itemize. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that inflation in the G20 nations has reached its lowest point since 2009.  Low inflation concerns central bankers who have enacted extensive expansionary measures in recent years, but are now hesitant remove these post-crisis stimulus programs. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren says that increasingly tight labor markets should drive the Fed to continue with interest rate hikes. Rosengren believes that there is a risk of the economy “overheating” if the unemployment rate falls much further, and that recent, weak inflation is only transitory. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, the Trump administration is planning trade measures that will push China to crack down on intellectual property theft and technology-sharing requirements. American businesses have voiced frustration in recent years about Chinese intellectual property theft, pointing to a wide range of business practices that they deem to be unfair. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal writes that OPEC is grappling with how to keep global oil markets calm when their agreement on output limits expires in March of 2018.  Market-watchers worry that when the deal ends in March, OPEC producers and other non-members who had agreed to production cuts will return to pumping oil at full capacity, potentially driving prices even lower than they are now. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, the Treasury Department released a statement on Wednesday reiterating the critical need for raising the debt limit.  The Treasury has been using cash-conservation tactics since early this year when the government reached its statutory debt limit, though these measures are likely to last only until late September. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, the Trump administration is pushing an aggressive timeline for tax reform.  The White House is confident tax reform can be achieved this year, but recognizes that it requires committee debate in September, a House floor vote in October, and a Senate vote in November — all of which may prove difficult given that legislators have been largely unable to agree on a tax plan as of yet.  WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, members of Congress will have just 12 working days to raise the federal borrowing limit when they return from their August recess.  Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said last week that the debt ceiling must be raised by September 29th or the federal government will be at risk of defaulting on its debts. WSJ

Sam Fleming and Joe Rennison of the Financial Times write that the Federal Reserve’s plan to begin shrinking its balance sheet as soon as September may be put in jeopardy if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling.  As investors become more nervous about the future of the debt ceiling the Fed may be forced to hold off on reducing its asset holdings to avoid shocks to financial markets. FT

The Wall Street Journal reports that food retailers in the U.S. have built out too much retail space and sales are suffering as a result.  Analysts say that as the supermarket industry becomes increasingly saturated, chain stores will be unable to continue opening new locations to make up for lost sales — sales which have been lost to online retailing and deep-discount stores. WSJ