Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

Consumer prices rose 0.4% in December (up 1.4% from a year ago). The “core” CPI, which excludes food and energy, also rose 0.1% and is up 1.6% from last year. BLS Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that a quick recovery from COVID-19 has been a boon for the Chinese economy, with China expected to be the only major economy in the world to have grown in 2020. As a result, global economic growth is now more reliant on China for growth than ever before, as the U.S. and many others continue to reel from the pandemic. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined to 95.9 in December as nine components weakened and one improved. The decline in the index was primarily driven by large decreases in expectations for future economic conditions and future sales growth. NFIB Report

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (“JOLTS”) indicated that the number of job openings was little changed at 6.5 million in November. The number of hires was little changed at 6.0 million, while the layoffs and discharges rate increased to 1.4%. BLS Report

U.S. News

The Washington Post reports that, in response to the pandemic, countries around the globe have increased spending on unemployment aid and medical resources while tax revenues have fallen, increasing the risks of an impending debt tsunami in emerging markets. According to the International Monetary Fund, 38 low-income countries are now either in debt distress or at high risk of falling into it, with a particular concern in tourism and commodity-dependent economies. WaPo

According to the New York Times, the Trump administration is expected to push new regulations and executive orders in an attempt to cement its positions on business, trade, and the economy before President Biden’s inauguration. While the Biden administration and a Democratic congress will likely overturn many of these through new executive orders or Congressional Review action, the Trump administration is likely to spend its last week promulgating rules on prohibiting Chinese apps and other products, re-defining gig workers, and limiting banks on social and environmental issues, amid priority issues. NYT

U.S. Economic Indicators

The U.S. economy lost 140,000 jobs in December, below expectations. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7%, and the labor force participation rate was unchanged at 61.5%. BLS Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that long-term bond yields rose sharply this week, to their highest levels since last March, following Democratic victories in the Georgia Senate runoffs. With Democratic majorities in both the House and the Senate, investors are expecting higher government spending to drive a rebound in inflation and economic growth. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims fell 3,000 to 787,000 last week. The four-week moving average decreased 18,750 to 818,750. DOL Report

The U.S. trade deficit widened from $63.1 billion (revised) in October to $68.1 billion in November. The goods deficit rose by $5.0 billion while the services surplus fell by less than $0.1 billion. Census Bureau Report

The ISM Services Index rose 1.3 points to 57.2 in December, indicating continued growth in the services sector. The New Orders Index increased 1.3 points to 58.5, while the Employment Index fell 3.3 points to 48.2. ISM Report