Publications

According to the Wall Street Journal, the International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) has upwardly revised its estimates of 2017 and 2018 global economic growth. The IMF says that the acceleration of worldwide growth is broad-based, but the recovery from the Great Recession remains incomplete. WSJ

The Washington Post reports that many estimates of the effects of the administration’s tax reform proposal show only a modest economic boost. Estimates from various banks and researchers show that U.S. GDP is likely to see a boost of 0.1-0.3% as a result of tax reform. WaPo

Andrew Van Dam of the Wall Street Journal writes that while hurricanes often have an immediate, severe impact on employment numbers, there usually is not lasting damage. Van Dam points out that the first jobs reports after other catastrophic storms such as Hurricanes Andrew and Katrina showed weaker job growth, but employment soon returned to pre-storm growth levels in the following months. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Trump administration plans to demand a specific level of U.S.-made inputs for automobiles made in North American to qualify for tariff breaks. The proposal has already received staunch opposition from Mexican and Canadian negotiators, who say that the requirements would defeat the purpose of a free trade agreement. WSJ

Richard Rubin of the Wall Street Journal writes that GOP efforts to repeal the estate tax are receiving resistance from other Congressional Republicans. While the current GOP tax reform framework includes a repeal of the estate tax, some Republicans have said that they would be willing to keep the tax in place in order to convince holdouts to vote for the tax plan. WSJ

Ben Casselman of the New York Times argues that many of the effects of the Great Recession are still being felt around the country. Casselman contends that the hardest-hit areas of the country still have not recovered from the recession, as some workers still struggle to find work and others have left the labor force altogether. NYT

The Wall Street Journal reports that Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signaled her support for making sure that banking regulations are not unduly burdensome. Yellen said that community banks mostly avoided the practices that contributed to the financial crisis and that they should not be punished for the actions of larger financial institutions. WSJ

Sharon Nunn of the Wall Street Journal writes that western states are driving the U.S.’ consumer spending growth. Nunn posits that the high-tech sector and expanded trade with Asia are driving the region’s growth, which has consistently outpaced nation-wide growth for six years. WSJ

The New York Times reports that Congressional Republicans are backing away from a proposed full repeal of state and local tax (“SALT”) deductions in their tax reform plan. Members of Congress in high-tax states have expressed staunch opposition to eliminating SALT deductions, which would likely raise taxes for citizens in those high-tax states. NYT

According to the Washington Post, only thirty-five percent of consumers who plan to shop during Thanksgiving week plan to shop on “Black Friday,” down from 51% a year ago. Multiple factors have contributed to this decline, including the rise of e-commerce and more spread-out holiday deals. WaPo

Martin Lowy argues in a Financial Times op-ed that the true cause of the U.S. housing bubble leading up to the Great Recession was a massive inflow of foreign money into the U.S. Lowy contends that if substantial amounts of foreign capital had not been invested in mortgage-backed securities between 2004 and 2006, private U.S. lenders would not have been able to extend mortgages to unqualified borrowers. FT
 
The Wall Street Journal reports that the connection between economic growth and tax cuts is not as clear-cut as many experts believe. The author argues that previous tax cuts have had mixed results on economic growth, and it is unclear what effect the newly proposed tax cuts will have on the macro-economy. WSJ