U.S. Economic News

U.S. Economic News

October 17, 2017

U.S. Economic Indicators

Industrial production rose 0.3% in September (up 1.6% Y/Y), after falling 0.7% in August.  Capacity utilization edged up to 76.0 from 75.8 (revised) in August.  Fed Report
 
The NAHB Housing Market Index rose 4.0 points to 68.0 in October.  
The outlook for the next six months improved as builders overcame the shock of recent hurricanes, although they will still face increased shortages of materials and labor as rebuilding efforts begin.  NAHB Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that White House economists say that cutting the corporate tax rate to 20% would boost average household income by at least $4,000 a year. Kevin Hassett, the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, also said that the study only examined a cut to the corporate tax rate, and that other changes to deductions or loopholes could alter the results. WSJ

In a Wall Street Journal op-ed former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers Edward Lazear argues that the current GOP tax plan could be improved by targeting small- and medium-sized businesses for deeper tax cuts. Lazear contends that these businesses would benefit the most from tax cuts which would in turn help accelerate U.S. economic growth. WSJ

U.S. Economic News

U.S. Economic News

October 16, 2017

U.S. Economic Indicators

The October Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that industrial activity in the New York region grew at a robust pace, as the headline index rose 6 points to 30.2, the highest level in three years.  The new orders index fell to 18.0, the shipments index jumped to 27.5, and the index for number of employees improved to 15.6; meanwhile, hours worked remained unchanged.  NY Fed Report

U.S. News

Eric Morath of the Wall Street Journal writes that the Labor Department is organizing a group of corporate executives, labor unions, and governors in order to establish a new apprenticeship task force. The White House says that apprenticeships will help workers learn the skills they need to fill openings in various specialized industries that have reported substantial shortages of skilled labor. WSJ

The Financial Times reports that National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn says post-crisis regulation is leading to the consolidation of financial activity in a few, immense banks. Cohn argues that strict financial regulations are keeping new players from entering the sector, thereby driving new business to existing banks. FT

According to the Wall Street Journal, analysts are beginning to consider the possibility of a full U.S. withdrawal from the North American Free Trade Agreement (“NAFTA”). While the White House aims to renegotiate NAFTA and avoid terminating the pact, analysis shows that a full withdrawal would have a minimal effect on U.S. GDP. WSJ

U.S. Economic News

U.S. Economic News

October 13, 2017

U.S. Economic Indicators

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index jumped 6 points to 101.1 in the preliminary October reading and is up 13.9 points on the year.  The Index of Consumer Expectations increased 6.9 points to 91.3, and the Current Economic Conditions Index rose 4.7 points to 116.4.  Report
 
Consumer prices rose 0.5% in September (up 2.2% on the year) almost entirely due to increases in gasoline prices. 
The “core” CPI, which excludes food and energy, edged up 0.1% in September and is up 1.7% on the year.  BLS Report
 
Retail sales
increased 1.6% in September and were up 4.4% on the year.  Core sales — which excludes autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services — rose 0.4%.  Census Bureau Report
  
Business inventories rose 0.7% in August and were up 3.6% from last year. 
Manufacturers’ sales increased 0.5% and were up 5.3% on the year. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that President Trump recently interviewed economist John Taylor for the Federal Reserve Chair position. Taylor joins former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and current Fed governor Jerome Powell as candidates for Janet Yellen’s replacement, though the White House has hinted that Yellen may be considered for another term. WSJ

U.S. Economic News

U.S. Economic News

October 12, 2017

U.S. Economic Indicators

The headline Producer Price Index (“PPI”) for final demand rose 0.4% in September and is up 2.6% since September of last year.  The core — which removes the volatile prices of food, energy, and trade services — increased 0.2% and is up 2.1% on the year.  BLS Report

Initial jobless claims decreased 15,000 to 243,000 last week.  The four-week moving average fell 9,500 to 257,500. DOL Report

U.S. News

A Wall Street Journal survey of economists shows that former Fed governor Kevin Warsh is the most likely candidate to replace Janet Yellen. Warsh, a former bank executive, would be expected to continue the administration’s path of deregulation and loosened government oversight. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, record-high job openings are not enticing employees to quit their current job for better work. The quits rate, which economists see as a measure of confidence in the labor market, is little changed from two years ago, signaling that workers may not yet feel that they can find better work if they voluntarily depart their current job. WSJ

U.S. Economic News

U.S. Economic News

October 11, 2017

U.S. News

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (“JOLTS”), a closely-watched measure of labor market health, indicated there were 6.1 million job openings at the end of August, little changed from June.  Hires edged down to 5.4 million and the quits rate moderated to 2.1%.  BLS Report

Eduardo Porter of the New York Times writes that small U.S. cities were hit especially hard by the recession because they did not have the industrial mix necessary to rebound. Porter writes that these cities were often reliant on a single industry, while larger cities enjoyed a mix of industries and professions that allowed for shifts in employment. NYT

The Wall Street Journal reports that Chicago Fed President Charles Evans says that another rate hike in 2017 is not a given. Evans also said that he is nervous about recent, weak inflation and that if inflation remains low, officials will have to reopen the debate about the path of future rate hikes. WSJ