Publications

Greg Ip of The Wall Street Journal argues that technological advances such as AI and automation will bring on a productivity boom, though adoption costs have so far prevented widespread utilization of these advances. Ip points to other advances such as electric motors and computer circuits as examples, both of which required significant investment and were not widely adopted for decades after their introduction. WSJ

The Washington Post reports that the Trump administration is expected to enact strict trade penalties against China in the beginning of 2018. Targets of those actions may include Chinese solar panel manufacturers, home appliance manufacturers, and steel exporters. WaPo

The Wall Street Journal reports that homeowners are rushing to prepay property taxes for 2018 before they lose the ability to deduct those payments from their tax bills. The recently-passed tax bill will cap the amount that filers can deduct for property taxes at $10,000, which could raise the tax bills of individuals living in higher-tax areas. WSJ

According to Jon Sindreu of The Wall Street Journal there is a risk that long-term interest rates could suddenly rise as central banks tighten monetary policy. Long-term rates have been subdued despite repeated rate hikes by the Fed, and a sudden spike in yields as the Fed continues to tighten could slow down or reverse recent gains in stock markets. WSJ

Suzanne Kapner of The Wall Street Journal writes that U.S. retail sales during the holiday season rose at their best pace since 2011 according to real-time credit card spending data. E-commerce sales drove the sharp growth, as consumer confidence holds near multi-decade highs and the unemployment rate near multi-decade lows. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that the repatriation provisions included in the recently-signed tax bill could boost the U.S. dollar as billions of dollars in offshore holdings are brought back to the U.S. However, analysts also note that as central banks around the world begin unwinding monetary-easing policies, global interest rates are likely to rise, so the magnitude of the effect on the U.S. dollar is not clear. WSJ

According to The Wall Street Journal small, rural businesses are finding it increasingly difficult to borrow money as local banks close or consolidate. As more banks disappear from small towns, local businesses are losing their personal relationships with lenders that were crucial for obtaining credit, leaving them to borrow from larger financial institutions with more rigid lending standards. WSJ