U.S. Economic News

U.S. Economic News

January 29, 2018

U.S. Economic Indicators

Real disposable personal income rose 0.2% in December while real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.3%. The PCE price index edged up 0.1% (up 1.7% Y/Y) and the core price index rose 0.2% (up 1.5% Y/Y). BEA Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, Canada and Mexico have rejected the Trump administration’s proposal to rework NAFTA’s existing corporate arbitration system. The current system, which allows multinational firms to avoid protracted and costly legal battles, would be modified to allow countries to opt out of the dispute-settlement process, though Canada and Mexico’s opposition to these changes means that the entire system could be removed from NAFTA. WSJ

The Washington Post reports that the NAFTA renegotiation process may stretch into 2019, as Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. have failed to reach agreement on the most contentious trade topics. Looming elections in Mexico and the U.S. may mean that negotiations will be dragged out until new politicians have taken office. WaPo

The Bitter U.S. Immigration Fight: Lower Economic Growth and Maybe Also a Government Shutdown

The Bitter U.S. Immigration Fight: Lower Economic Growth and Maybe Also a Government Shutdown

January 26, 2018

Over the past year, the Trump administration has worked behind the scenes to implement dramatic new restrictions on legal immigration and crack down on illegal immigration. In this analysis, Keybridge examines the impact of recent changes as well as potential future shifts in U.S. immigration policy.

Related Documents: Key Insight – The Bitter U.S. Immigration Fight – January 2018

U.S. Economic News

U.S. Economic News

U.S. Economic Indicators

The first estimate of Q4 GDP indicates that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.6%, slightly below consensus. The reading reflects healthy consumer spending, business investment, residential investment, as well as strong contributions from government spending. BEA Report
 
The U.S. Census Bureau Advance Economic Indicators Report shows that the goods deficit widened to $71.6 billion in December from $70.0 billion in November.
Meanwhile, wholesale inventories inched up 0.2% and retail inventories also edged up 0.2%. Census Bureau Report
 
New orders of manufactured durable goods jumped 2.9% in December after increasing 1.7% (revised) in November, and are up 5.8% year-over-year.  
Excluding transportation, new orders rose 0.6% (up 6.3% Y/Y).  Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that new tax rules are incentivizing factory owners to implement more automation and robots in their factories. The ability to fully and immediately deduct the cost of equipment purchases for the next five years has driven owners to pull forward investment that they may have otherwise put off due to the old tax structure. WSJ

U.S. Economic News

U.S. Economic News

January 25, 2018

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims increased 17,000 to 233,000 last week. The four-week moving average fell 3,500 to 240,000.  DOL Report

New home sales fell 9.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 625,000 in December, but are 14.1% above the December 2016 rate.  The median sales price increased to $335,400 and the inventory of new homes jumped to 5.7 months at the current sales rate. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

Ben Leubsdorf of the Wall Street Journal writes that the recent recovery in U.S. business investment has been driven in large part by the rebound in oil prices. Firming oil prices and healthy global demand have spurred robust investment in nonresidential structures and equipment, including oil rigs and associated infrastructure. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Trump administration’s infrastructure push aims to reduce regulations and permitting times in order to encourage spending on infrastructure projects. The infrastructure program proposed by the Trump administration will also seek the majority of its funding from non-federal sources, and fewer regulatory barriers will expand the pool of available funds, supporters say. WSJ

U.S. Economic News

U.S. Economic News

January 24, 2018

U.S. Economic Indicators

Existing home sales fell 3.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million in December, but are 1.1% above year-ago levels.  NAR notes that despite significant headwinds, the housing market performed remarkably well in 2017 and that rising wages should help more first-time buyers purchase homes.  NAR Report
 
The FHFA House Price Index shows that U.S. house prices rose 0.4% in November and were up 6.5% from the same period last year.
  House prices rose on an annual basis in all nine census divisions, with the largest gains coming in the Mountain division. Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Senate has confirmed Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chairman. Powell, who was confirmed in an 84-13 vote, will take over in February and is expected to continue Janet Yellen’s approach of cautious and gradual rate hikes. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is unconcerned that eleven nations forged a Trans-Pacific Partnership (“TPP”) agreement after the U.S. withdrew from the deal. Mnuchin reiterated that the Trump administration is amenable to bilateral deals where they do not yet exist and will continue to pursue “America First” trade policy. WSJ