Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

Real disposable personal income increased 0.2% in December, while real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased 0.6%. The PCE price index rose 0.4% (up 1.3% Y/Y), and the core price index rose 0.3% (up 1.5% Y/Y). BEA Report

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined 1.7 points to 79.0 in the final January reading and is down 20.8 points from January of last year. The Index of Consumer Expectations dropped 0.6 points to 74.0, while the Current Economic Conditions Index declined 3.3 points to 86.7. University of Michigan

The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index ticked down 0.3% in December (up 21.4% Y/Y). The Midwest was the biggest regional driver of the shift with a 3.6% decrease that more than offset increases or steady numbers in the Northeast, South, and West. NAR Report

U.S. Economic Indicators

The advance estimate of Q4 GDP indicates that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.0%, slightly below consensus estimates. The increase in real GDP reflects positive contributions from business investment, consumer spending, residential investment, and private inventories that were partly offset by negative contributions from government spending and net exports. BEA Report

Initial jobless claims fell 67,000 to 847,000 last week. The four-week moving average decreased increased 16,250 to 868,000. DOL Report

New home sales rose 1.6% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 842,000 and were up 15.2% above year-ago levels. The median sales price edged up to $355,900 and the inventory of new homes rose to 4.3 months at the current sales rate. Census Bureau Report

The U.S. Census Bureau Advance Economic Indicators Report shows that the goods deficit narrowed to $82.5 billion in December from $85.5 billion in November. Meanwhile, wholesale inventories rose 0.1% and retail inventories rose 1.0%. Census Bureau Report

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) rose 0.3% in December following a 0.7% increase in November. The LEI’s slowing pace of increase suggests that U.S. economic growth continues to moderate due to rising initial claims for unemployment and a mixed consumer outlook. Conference Board Report

U.S. Economic Indicators

New orders of manufactured durable goods rose 0.2% in December after increasing 1.2% (revised) in November. Excluding transportation, new orders rose 0.7% after increasing 0.8% the month before. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

Bloomberg reports that while the national debt for G7 countries has risen from 85% of GDP in 2005 to 140% today, the cost of servicing that debt has fallen from 2% to 1.5% of GDP. Governments worldwide spent vast sums in 2020 to combat the pandemic, including $3 trillion in asset purchases by the Fed alone; however, projections out to 2030 suggest that debt servicing is expected to remain manageable for many countries. Bloomberg

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose from 87.1 (revised) in December to 89.3 in January. Near-term expectations for jobs, business conditions, and financial prospects increased, while consumers’ assessments of current business and labor market conditions declined. Conference Board Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that many households have boosted savings during the pandemic due to multiple stimulus checks and low demand for services, a pattern which is expected to propel U.S. economic recovery in 2021. In fact, Americans saved a total of $1.4 trillion in the first three quarters of 2020 – nearly twice as much as in the same period of 2019 – including an average of 36% of their first stimulus payments. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose from +0.31 in November to +0.52 in December. Three of the four broad categories of indicators – production, employment, and sales, orders, & inventories – contributed positively to the overall index, while the consumption category contributed negatively. Chicago Fed Report

U.S. News

The Washington Post reports that dramatic shifts in consumption patterns during the pandemic continue to overwhelm global supply chains, causing shipping costs to triple in the last year amid bottlenecks and labor shortages. As consumers spend less on services and more on imported goods like clothing and electronics, the global logistics industry has come under strain, with implications for domestic manufacturing and consumer prices. WaPo