Publications

James Mackintosh of the Wall Street Journal writes that recent weakness in certain economic indicators could signal that the Fed is hiking interest rates in the face of soft economic growth. Mackintosh points out that a few rate hikes coupled with weak growth are unlikely to trigger a recession, though if housing activity and consumer spending remain weak the Fed may have to reassess its path of rate hikes. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that forty-five trade associations representing a wide range of U.S. industries have signed a letter petitioning the White House to halt its plans to impose harsh tariffs on Chinese imports. The trade groups argue that the tariffs will trigger retaliatory actions by China and other nations, which would likely harm American companies that depend on exports. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that home construction per household remains near its lowest level in sixty years, exacerbating current affordability issues. Home builders say that demand is as strong as it has ever been, but land and construction costs have roughly doubled from a decade ago, which have pushed builders into the upper end of the housing market where profit margins are wider. WSJ

Sam Fleming of the Financial Times writes that analysts expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates after their meeting this week despite early-year softness in consumer spending. This week’s meeting will be the first with Jerome Powell as Fed chairman, and although inflation remains below the Fed’s target there are signs that the economy could soon overheat. FT

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (“JOLTS”), a closely-watched measure of labor market health, indicated there were 6.3 million job openings at the end of January, up sharply from December.  Hires rose to 5.6 million while the quits rate edged down to 2.2%.  BLS Report

The Wall Street Journal reports that President Trump has selected Larry Kudlow to serve as the new director of the National Economic Council. Although Kudlow was opposed to recent tariffs on steel and aluminum, he has also been a strong supporter of recent tax cuts and deregulation pursued by the current administration. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that subdued inflation has eased concerns among investors that rising prices would cause further financial market volatility. Although many market-watchers have expected inflation to pick up as labor markets tighten, there have been few signs of this phenomenon happening, despite a 17-year low unemployment rate. WSJ